First Solar: No Floor In Sight - Pending Further Policy Clarity (Rating Downgrade)

2025-02-27 09:30:00 ET

Summary

• FSLR's oversold status has been observed in its solar/renewable peers, thanks to the uncertainty surrounding the US renewables policy over the next four years.
• Combined with the polysilicon oversupply/dumping and the ongoing tariff war, we are likely to see further volatility ahead.
• The same headwind has also been reported by FSLR, as observed in the drastically moderating net bookings/ backlog, manufacturing under utilization, and delayed delivery schedule.
• It remains to be seen if the eventual 2026 nameplate capacity of 25.2 GW may actually be fully utilized, including 14 GW in the US, given the ongoing demand headwinds.
• Combined with the notable disjoint in FSLR's performance metrics and stock price performance, we are unlikely to see a floor materialize anytime soon.

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