- A conservative model of future World Crude plus Condensate (C+C) output is presented in this article.
- My model projects continued 1.2% average annual growth in C+C output from 2022 to 2029 when the final peak in output is projected.
- The annual rate of decline gradually increases to above 2.5% by 2039 and is followed by steady decline at 2.8% for the next 70 years.
A guest post by D Coyne
A conservative model of future World Crude plus Condensate (C+C) output is presented below with an average decline rate of 2.8% from 2040 to 2110. From 1933 to 1972, World C+C output increased at an average annual rate of about 7.8%; and after the oil shocks in the 1970s and 1980s, from 1983 to 2016 output increased at 1.2%/year on average. The decrease in the rate of change in World output was 6.5% between the high growth period up to 1972 and the slower growth period up to 2016. My model projects continued 1.2% average annual growth in C+C output from 2022 to 2029 when the final peak in output is projected. The annual rate of decline gradually increases to above 2.5% by 2039 and is followed by steady decline at 2.8% for the next 70 years. The decrease in the rate of change in output from the earlier period from 1983 to 2029 (about 1.2%) to the period after 2039 is 4%. The chart has a log vertical axis to indicate rates of change in output.
Some of the data for this model is in the spreadsheet linked here ( download link ), the new reserves column comes from the oil shock model using a discovery model with 2750 Gb of conventional oil URR.
Editor's Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha editors.
For further details see:
Future Decline Rate Of World Oil Output