Investors looking for a rebound in Gazprom's (OGZPY) fortunes may be disappointed. Contrary to management's call for a bottoming in the gas cycle, I think there is risk that the FCF will come under pressure from weak gas prices and an elevated capex run-rate. While management has tied the dividend to adjusted net profit, I think investors should continue to monitor FCF closely - at the current capex run-rate, I see material risk to the sustainability of the dividend.
Reason for Concern Beneath All the Noise
Gazprom reported its latest quarterly numbers much