Jaguar Mining: This Cat Doesn't Hunt

2025-04-15 15:21:56 ET

Summary

• Jaguar Mining missed guidance for the fourth consecutive year, with a 13% miss on soft guidance in 2024 and a 14.2% average annual miss over the four years.
• Unfortunately, the 2025 outlook isn't any better with just one of two mines online after the Satinoco tailings pile slump in December, suggesting another 20% decline in year-over-year production.
• Making the investment thesis more complicated, Jaguar faces significant fines, including ~$54 million [R$320 million] in environmental fines from the State Environmental Secretariat and several smaller fines.
• In this update, we'll dig into the Q4 and FY2024 results, recent developments, and whether the stock is offering an adequate margin of safety at current levels.

All figures are in United States dollars unless otherwise noted. G/T = grams per tonne (of gold or silver). GEOs = gold-equivalent ounces. SEOs = silver-equivalent ounces. AISC refers to all-in sustaining costs. LOMP = life of mine plan. TPD = tonnes per day.

Q4 2024 & FY2024 Results

Jaguar Mining (JAGGF) (JAG:CA) released its Q4-24 results in March, reporting quarterly production of ~14,800 ounces, a 20% decline from the year-ago period. Lower production was related to a temporary suspension of operations at its Turmalina Mine in Brazil (~4,300 ounces produced), offset by slightly higher production at Pilar (~10,500 ounces). The latter was related to higher throughput at similar grades (3.65 G/T of gold vs. 3.68 G/T of gold)....

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