- The gap between the 10-year Treasury yield and 2-year Treasury yield narrowed this week to a positive 9 basis points.
- This week's simulation of future Treasury yields shows that the probability of an inverted yield curve by year end 2022 jumped 18 percentage points this week to 54.9%.
- The 10-year outlook for 3-month Treasury bill yields and 10-year bond yields clearly reflects market expectations that the Fed's "on the job training" on inflation will pay off.
For further details see:
Kamakura Weekly Forecast, June 10, 2022: Probability Of An Inverted Yield Curve Jumps 18 Points To 54.9%