Next’s week’s predicted market ranges from Trevor Smith.
Latent technical market weaknesses appeared today, Thursday afternoon, in both Nasdaq and CBOE VIX futures, as well as the Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLP). These relate to the inabilities to close beyond their Tuesday ranges.
Nasdaq may drag down the other major stock indexes, but, conversely, the S&P has stronger technicals.
Crude oil, in longstanding range tests of low sides of $20.19; options traders are big on both sides.
The headline, “Bullish April For Crude, Euro Trade of the Year”, and “guardedly bullish for stock indices…” accurately predicted higher prices in all three markets. Both directional trade ideas from last week worked. six/10 projected weekly ranges printed.
Next Week’s Predicted Ranges
E-mini S&P 500
High Range 2880-2839; Low Range 2670-2602
Bear-adjusted high range from Nasdaq internals
Japanese Yen
High Range 9368-9300; Low Range 9165-9145
Range is slightly bullish with wide-range expectations
Euro FX
High Range 1.111-1.103; Low Range 1.087-1.076
Bullish range toward 1.137, 1.166 pivot targets with 1.10-1.102 monthly option volume
Gold
High Range $1,791-$1,767; Low Range $1,678-$1,655
Neutral ranges; Tues. inverted hammer sell candlestick still in effect w/ $1631 range outlier target
Crude Oil
High Range $28.40-$25.80; Low Range $22.19-$20.26
Mixed directional charts. I’m a bull. Thousands of options on under $20/barrel and over $30.
Last Week’s Predicted-Versus-Actual Ranges (as of Thursday afternoon):
E-mini S&P 500
High Range 2775-2651; Low Range 2412-2367
Actual: 2809-2449
Bullish adjusted range from market internals strong since Feb. 28; Weekly chart buy signal has sell tail/shadow on top softening my high range off the 2800
Japanese Yen
High Range 9484-9379; Low Range 9235-9152
Actual: 9298-9158
Range is neutral with 1 standard deviation embedded but also wide on both sides due to trending, wide-range expected move that may be similar to the Euro
Euro FX
High Range 1.129-1.118; Low Range 1.082-1.076
(1.137,1.166 outliers)
Actual: 1.097-1.079
Bullish range towards higher 1.192 pivot targets. Aggressive traders can buy small monthly, slightly out-of-the-money (>1,10 strikes) call spreads overhead with unneeded money
Gold
High Range $1678-$1658; Low Range $1612-$1574
Actual: $1754-$1624
Neutral ranges
Crude Oil
High Range $31.99-$29.25; Low Range $23.39-$21.05
Actual: $29.13-$22.57
Bullish range/trade idea
Trevor Smith is a technical market analyst/forecaster who is registered as a Commodity Trading Advisor. Trevor holds four academic degrees across several disciplines and has published works in: Nashville Lifestyles Magazine, The Colorado Daily, The Tennessean/USA Today, Vitamin Retailer, and other media. You can view “Trevor’s Trading” here.
Note: Range calculations this week were made Wednesday evening. Nothing herein shall be construed to be specific financial advice. While reflecting my best good-faith efforts to forecast markets, no guarantees of accuracy are made from my range statistics, aggregate statistics, frequentist interpretations, and pivot math from hand calculations. I am a registered newsletter CTA, and all required disclaimers apply. Trade at your own risk with money you could discard/not miss.