- Oil, stocks and gold all cannot rise without a corresponding rise in UST yields. The idea that inflation hedge and risk assets can be up but yields down is untenable.
- A rise in US yields and stronger USD short circuits emerging market economies especially those with USD currency boards who "import" UST yields or have significant USD denominated corporate debt.
- I have a long USD theme running through the portfolio and am net short/very risk-off but hold long positions in the versatile tanker sector.
- I am directly short through put options US tech, emerging market equities, precious metals, oil prices and producers, while being long tankers with call options.
- I am synthetically or thematically long US dollars and short US bonds.
For further details see:Portfolio Construction Update