- Like Q2, the Q3 GDP was an all-time record quarter, except in the other direction. But we have still just finished up one of the worst 3-quarter periods in history.
- There is big split between high density services doing poorly, and home goods and vehicles which are doing well. The losses from services far outstrip the gains in goods.
- In the near term, the path of COVID will determine our future. We have a long winter ahead.
- But once enough people are vaccinated, the medium and long term will be determined by what happens to the giant household savings bubble, now over $1.2 trillion.
For further details see:
Q3 GDP And Outlook: When An All-Timer Gets Ignored