Editor's note: This article was originally published on June 7, 2019 by Menzie Chinn here.
Different forward looking models show increasing likelihood of a recession. Most recent readings of key series highlighted by the NBER's Business Cycle Dating Committee (BCDC) suggest a peak, although the critical indicator - nonfarm payroll employment - continues to rise, albeit slowly.
Predictions from Financial Markets
Figure 1: Probability of recession in indicated month, based on spreads 12 months prior, from 10yr-3mo term spread (blue), 10yr-3mo term spread and Moody's Baa-10yr credit spread (red), 10yr-3mo term spread adjusted by