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Preparing yesterday's post, the decline in the "forward 4-quarter" growth rate for the S&P 500 below 3% was a bit of a surprise. However, perusing the IBES by Refinitiv 2020 Expected S&P 500 Earnings data shows that revisions are positive for next year (at least for now) which histor...
There is always a lot of excitement around the unemployment stats these days. With near-historical lows, and the talk about 'full employment', there is much to be celebrated and traded on in the non-farm payrolls stats and Labor Department press releases. But the problem with all the hoopla ar...
The economy grew 2.1% in the second quarter, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reports. Although that marks a hefty slowdown from Q1's 3.1% increase, the Q2 advance is a bit stronger than expected. A surge in consumer spending is the main reason that GDP growth beat expectations. Personal co...
Editor's note: This article was originally published on July 26, 2019 by James Hamilton here . The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that U.S. real GDP grew at a 2.1% annual rate in the second quarter of 2019. That's pretty near the 2.2% average rate since the recovery from th...
Here are some things I think I am thinking about: 1) Q2 GDP - more of the same. Second-quarter GDP came in at 2.1%. Pretty weak. But more of the same. As I've long been pointing out - this is the golden age of low and stable growth. It really is a sort of Goldilocks economy. Not too hot, n...
On the latest edition of Market Week in Review, Mark Eibel, director, client investment strategies, and Rob Cittadini, senior director, U.S. institutional, discussed second-quarter GDP (gross domestic product), global central-bank dovishness and Q2 earnings season. U.S. economy still g...
By Jill Mislinski The Advance Estimate for Q2 GDP, to one decimal, came in at 2.1% (2.06% to two decimal places), a decrease from 3.1% for the Q1 Third Estimate. Investing.com had a consensus of 1.8%. Here is the slightly abbreviated opening text from the Bureau of Economic Analysis news...
You can see it in the GDP numbers, even before they were revised. Globally synchronized growth was always less impressive than what it was made out to be. It's as true overseas as in the US. The upswing was endlessly hyped, but there was so much less behind it in reality. Reflation #2 was a ...
Originally published July 25, 2019 This table was published Wednesday morning, July 24, in an update sent out by Tajinder Dhillon of IBES by Refinitiv. What's interesting is that for the S&P 500 as a whole, the "average" EPS upside surprise is 5.1%. Looking at the sectors that have...
On Thursday, July 25, the US stock market was sitting at a level that was not far below its recent highs, which were at record levels. Tax and regulatory reforms have bolstered corporate earnings leading to new peaks in the leading indices in the equities market. While investors have been si...