Initiating Coverage. We are initiating research coverage of The GEO Group with an Outperform rating and a $15.00 12-month price target. We believe investors can profit from an attractive dividend yield, currently in excess of 15%, and price appreciation given the undervaluation of the Company's core real estate assets.Leading Provider of Mission Critical Real Estate. With over 94,000 beds owned, leased or managed across its business lines and serving over 260,000 people daily, GEO is a leading provider of mission critical real estate to its governmental partners. The Company is the first fully integrated equity REIT specializing in the design, financing, development, and operation of secure facilities, processing centers, and community reentry centers in the U.S., Australia, South Africa, and the U.K.Significant Growth Opportunities. GEO enjoys significant growth opportunities across its business segments, in our view. An aging and overcrowded public option needs GEO's beds to perform its societal function, while GEO's extensive, and growing, post-release options present another avenue of growth. Solid Balance Sheet to Support Strategy and Shareholder Returns. With $350 million of availability and a $450 million accordion feature under its revolver, GEO's balance sheet can support both organic and inorganic growth opportunities while maintaining the current dividend. Projections. Although declining ICE populations and COVID are headwinds, we are projecting second quarter revenue of $585 million, diluted EPS of $0.20, and AFFO of $0.52 per share. For the full year, we are at revenue of $2.38 billion, diluted EPS of $0.92, and AFFO of $2.22 per share. Read More >>