- ROIV has moved up 88% in December in reaction to a patent dispute between Moderna and Arbutus falling in favor of Arbutus.
- The patent is licensed to a private company called Genevant. ROIV owns an effective 88% stake through direct ownership and its stake in ABUS.
- ROIV's move upwards this month implies a $4.5 billion valuation boost to Genevant. ABUS should be entitled to 16% of that boost.
- Between the Genevant valuation boost and the upfront portion of ABUS' $300 million deal with Qilu, I estimate a fair value of $8.74 on ABUS.
- There is a risk that I am overstating the potential value of any Genevant deal, but my bull thesis on ABUS has a lot of room for error before it gets busted.
For further details see:
Roivant Sciences Nearly Doubles Since Moderna Patent Ruling, Buy Arbutus