For traders and investors in financial markets, risk and reward are two sides of a single coin. There are, of course, exceptions and geopolitical risk is one of them. The difficulty with geopolitical risk is that it is really geopolitical uncertainty. As Frank Knight observed back in 1921 in Risk, Uncertainty and Profit - risk is can be measured and forecast, uncertainty, cannot:
Uncertainty must be taken in a sense radically distinct from the familiar notion of Risk, from which it has never been properly separated... The essential fact is that 'risk' means