Debt Negotiations. Late last week, GEO filed an 8-K with the SEC highlighting confidential discussions that the Company has engaged in with certain holders of its secured debt concerning a potential refinancing, exchange, recapitalization, or other transaction. While no agreement has been reached yet, negotiations are expected to continue.Business Model Highlights. We believe the presentation highlights the strength of GEO's operating model. For example, management's long-term financial forecast anticipates relatively flat revenues, adjusted EBITDA, and unlevered free cash flow through the 2024 forecast period, even factoring in the negative impact of the President's executive order.Favorable Industry Trends. Part of the stable operating forecast is the ongoing favorable industry trends, many of which we have noted previously. For example, an aging public prison infrastructure will result in continued demand for private facilities, while the record increases in border crossings has, and will continue to, created capacity issues for ICE and opportunity for the BI business.Undervalued Assets. The presentation provides detail that highlights the value of GEO's assets, for example, replacement costs of certain facilities and the BI business. We believe these provide validation of our view that GEO shares are undervalued, even in the current challenging operating environment.Favorable Risk/Reward. We continue to believe GEO shares represent a favorable risk/reward situation. We are maintaining our Outperform rating and a $15 per share 12-month price target. While COVID and the political rhetoric remain headwinds, there are limited alternatives to GEO's services and we believe the Company's real estate assets and high quality contracts eventually will be properly valued. Read More >>