The future of the auto industry is filled with speculation and uncertainty. Auto companies and investors are betting big on electric vehicles (EVs), but there is an inherent risk in this method. My intent with this article is to take a simple and conservative approach that differs from that of many others. My aim is to focus on what we do know from a business risk perspective and ignore the exuberance that comes with trying to guess what future technology will succeed. Investors need to understand the uncertainty facing the auto industry and choose companies