Recent economic data is clouding the outlook for the US macro trend. Although a recession hasn't started and isn't likely to begin in the immediate future, several key indicators suggest that output is slowing and so uncertainty is rising for the second half of the year.
Notably, industrial production's one-year change eased to a sluggish 0.9% increase in April-the weakest gain in over two years. Meanwhile, retail spending, although still rising at a modest 3.1% year-over-year pace last month, remains subdued relative to the trend at this point in 2018.
On the plus side, the