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Emerging markets hard-currency bonds could remain volatile given the challenging global macroeconomic backdrop, but we see pockets of opportunities. BloombergNEF believes total metal demand from lithium-ion batteries will reach 13.5 million metric tons by 2030. Strong demand for c...
A climate mitigation policy mix of carbon taxes, green subsidies, and infrastructure investment could reduce global balances by a quarter by 2027. Global interest rates are also likely to fall in the longer term because of the decline in investment in fossil fuels, following an initia...
As risk markets have rebounded over the past month, FOMO has resumed with retail flows moving back to the sketchiest and over-valued securities and shorts being forced to buy back positions. So long as wild abandon and gambling permeate, we can be sure that the cycle bottom is nowhere...
Portfolio Manager Jack McIntyre explains how the global economy arrived at where it is today, and where it may be headed in terms of inflationary pressures and economic activity. He also provides a road map for asset allocation based on the outlook for inflation and growth. We cou...
The global business climate is deteriorating in mid-2022, putting forecasters on recession watch. Real global GDP is likely to have declined in the second quarter of 2022, pulled down by contractions in emerging Europe, mainland China, and the United States. Adverse financial cond...
Elevated inflation, slowing global economic growth expectations, and reduced central bank liquidity remain the key economic considerations. The policy interest rate divergence between the U.S. and Europe is likely to increase amid heightened recession risk in Europe. We expect mar...
The lingering pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine are dealing a setback to the global economy. This is affecting trade, commodity prices, and financial flows, all of which are changing current account deficits and surpluses. Global current account balances, the overall si...
Global economic growth slowed to a crawl in July, according to the latest PMI survey data, led by the developed world falling into contraction for the first time in two years. Emerging market growth as a whole consequently remained broadly resilient at one of the fastest rates seen ov...
The latest data releases in emerging markets Asia confirmed that peak inflation in the region remains elusive. Unlike EM Asia, inflation surprises in EMEA and LATAM are actually heading south - together with actual annual inflation in some countries. There will be several importan...
Output fell in the United States, Eurozone, UK and Japan, while mainland China saw a reduced rate of expansion and the rest of Asia as a whole likewise mustered only modest growth. The global manufacturing PMI survey's Output Index signaled stalled production in July. The worsenin...