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By Bert Colijn , Senior Economist, Eurozone Industrial production is likely to have increased in May, but don’t let the numbers fool you. Without an improved trade outlook, manufacturing could be in for a weak second half of the year. As long as employment remains stable, howe...
In a one-chart summary, why euro has been a painfully failing experiment in monetary policy: The above chart shows the comparative in real GDP levels between the Great Depression in the U.S. (1929-1936) and the Great Recession in Greece (starting from 2008 with data through 2018, and then us...
Industrial production in the eurozone rose sharply in May, but survey data indicate that the improvement will be short-lived. Official Eurostat data showed industrial production surging 0.9% in May, rebounding after declines in the prior two months. The narrower definition of manufacturing o...
By Bill Witherell, Ph.D. Just days after US President Trump announced a ceasefire and resumption of trade negotiations with China, the US Trade Representative proposed new tariffs on 89 European Union ((EU)) goods worth $4 billion. These levies are in response to concerns about aircraft su...
The Basic British Problem The basic problem with the British economy at the moment in Brexit. When is the country going to leave the European Union? On what terms? Will it, actually, really leave? All of these lead to uncertainty and uncertainty can be a right killer for economic growth. So,...
Monetary policy since the GFC of 2008 has been characterised by the near-zero (and even negative) policy rates, negative bank rates, negative Government debt yields and rampant asset price inflation. The result has been zombification of the advanced economies. Here is the latest advanced est...
The Event The President of Turkey, Recep Erdogan, has fired the central bank Governor. As a result Turkish bond prices have slipped, yields have risen. The Lira has fallen on the FX exchanges, the stock market is slipping - all the signs of the markets thinking this is a bad idea. And it is ...
These macroeconomic numbers The reason we look at these varied macroeconomic statistics is that we want to know, divine, if and when the economy is going to turn. We know very well that we've not abolished the business cycle and quite clearly we want, as investors, to be differently orientat...
The very concept of the Eurozone is a difficult one Sure, it's the set of countries, economies, that use the same currency. And thus have the same central bank and the same base interest rates. The actual problem with the concept being that they're just not the same economy and are all worki...
The European Council's decision to propose Christine Lagarde and Ursula von der Leyen as the presidential candidates for the European Central Bank ((ECB)) and European Commission, respectively, sends three subtle but important messages to financial markets: 1) Continuity. Other candidates,...
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ATLANTA , Dec. 13, 2019 /PRNewswire/ -- Invesco (NYSE: IVZ), one of the world's leading global investment managers, today announced changes to its US exchange-traded fund (ETF) and mutual fund product lines. The fund rationalization is intended to integrate the fund ranges o...