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Summary This month's low CPI inflation numbers were not surprising based on upstream indicators of inflation. A statistical quirk in how shelter inflation is calculated is now largely responsible for core inflation. Deflationary pressures are rising, and are likely to temporar...
Summary Traditional theories and most conventional policy analysis state that inflation is unstable under an interest rate target. The Fed can help in the short run by raising interest rates, offsetting some of the inflation at the cost of larger future inflation. the simplist...
Summary The BLS released new price inflation data on November 10, and according to the report, price inflation during the month decelerated slightly, but remained near 40-year highs. According to the BLS, Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rose 7.7 percent year over year during ...
Summary But there won’t be an adjustment for the Fed-favored “core PCE” price index that will come out before the next Fed meeting. Because of the periodic adjustment, the CPI for health insurance plunged 4.0% in October from September, a 6.1 percentage-point ...
Summary Most categories saw softer-than-expected inflation readings. We believe October’s softer-than-expected CPI reading strengthened the case that inflation will indeed moderate in 2023 after a period of elevated inflation. We believe the implications of the October ...
Summary A widely discussed criticism of the Federal Reserve is that the central bank was asleep at the switch last year when it waited too long to begin tightening monetary policy to nip emerging inflation in the bud. Comparing monetary policy across economies is tricky since ever...
Summary With policy rates now meaningfully above neutral, the first phase of the tightening process is finished—and apparently successful. With the Fed’s credibility intact, it can move to a new phase: rolling out more rate hikes but at a slower pace. We expect t...
Summary There is a midterm election. But we are also at a pivotal point of the business cycle where the U.S. Fed is on a warpath against high inflation, 30-year fixed mortgage rates have more than doubled, leading economic indicators are slowing, and equities and government bonds are ...
Summary The view that inflation will be around for some time is growing. The recent CPI numbers have come in hotter than expected. The elephant in the room remains that restrictive monetary policy means that liquidity is vanishing and the risk-reward for loaning money on a pro...
Summary The midterm election is historically a negative for the president’s party, and this year is expected to be no different. Thinking people might consider how a shift in US Senate seats can ameliorate the most significant monetary contraction and real estate-led global...
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2024-05-29 00:40:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-04-09 13:32:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-03-20 13:34:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...