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Summary We are in a landscape of divergences and potential pivots. The capacity to absorb structurally higher rates is likely to be key over the next year or two. We think the volatility generated by pivots can continue to offer a favorable backdrop to global macro and other t...
Summary The S&P 500, which fell to a year-to-date low of minus 25 percent in the middle of October, built the magnitude of its recovery back by nearly ten percent, and is now down just 16 percent from January. We do not see much in the way of surprises ahead from the big direc...
Summary Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stepped to the podium at his most recent press conference and delivered a very clear message: The market should expect rates to remain higher for longer. Yes, inflation remains the chief concern for markets and the economy right now, ...
Summary The personal consumption expenditures price index, which is the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, continues to grow much faster than Fed officials would like. The Fed has raised its federal funds rate target considerably over the last few months. The neutral...
Summary While the U.S. economy has absorbed tighter financial conditions so far, it doesn’t mean it will continue to do so. The bullish expectation is that when the Fed finally makes a “policy pivot,” such will end the bear market. While that expectation is no...
Summary Highlights from the U.S. October inflation report. U.S. midterm elections update. Do markets prefer congressional gridlock? On the latest edition of Market Week in Review, Chief Investment Strategist Erik Ristuben and Sophie Antal-Gilbert, Head of AIS Portfol...
Summary Inflation still looks set to remain high and the Federal Reserve remains on track to continue raising interest rates. The stock market surged and Treasury yields fell sharply. Despite encouraging inflation news and future estimates, uncertainty remains high about how f...
Summary The CPI report came in shockingly cooler than expected on November 10. However, the inflation battle is far from over. The Fed will probably push back against markets should financial conditions ease. The CPI report on November 10 was shocking , just that ins...
Summary The stock market has already endured a major correction over the past 12 months and could be headed back to pre-pandemic levels. The real estate market has been suddenly frozen by the rapid pace of the Fed's interest rate hikes. Home prices are now starting to drop and...
Summary This month's low CPI inflation numbers were not surprising based on upstream indicators of inflation. A statistical quirk in how shelter inflation is calculated is now largely responsible for core inflation. Deflationary pressures are rising, and are likely to temporar...
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2024-05-29 00:40:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-04-09 13:32:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-03-20 13:34:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...