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Summary For the past 18 months or so, I have argued that the surge in inflation which began about two years ago was fueled by a surge in the M2 money supply that began in the months following the Covid panic. Today we received the M2 number for December '22, and it showed that the money...
Summary The problem with speculation is that there’s usually a gap between the underlying risk and the inevitable outcome. The gap is most dangerous when there are potential rewards for pushing your luck. Over the past year, the S&P 500 has retreated only modestly from its Ja...
Summary We believe macroeconomic indicators offer little to cheer about in the first quarter of 2023 - and perhaps through the remainder of the year. Despite Wall Street’s rosier prognostications, we think that a challenging mix of alarming economic inequality, monetary policy he...
Summary Once the ebbing omicron wave allows Chinese citizens to feel comfortable again about social engagement, we should see a decent bounce in consumption, even property transactions, and business investment will be momentarily buoyed. Inflation remains the greatest threat to the glob...
Summary When focusing on what we believe are the primary market signals, the “condition our condition is in” is uncertain. Quality is an increasingly important risk factor as investors refocus on fundamentals during uncertain times. U.S. small-cap stocks may have alrea...
Summary For several months, we have said that a slowing of inflation could provide a temporary tailwind to equity markets, but that weakening growth will eventually hit them with a stronger headwind. Tumbling PPI suggests that companies are starting to struggle to pass on rising costs. ...
Summary The causes of inflation were many and varied, always debated with plenty of finger pointing. Shorter-term shocks seem to cause people less concern because they don’t expect them to continue. Our current view is that the Fed will aim for a 5% or so federal funds target...
Summary Everyone wants to buy bonds right now because everyone knows the US is headed for recession. But neither the 10-year, the 2-year or shorter-term yields are currently falling at a pace that we would expect just prior to recession. If we go into recession you’ll make mo...
Summary The past week saw some of the strongest selling pressure in over a month, but buyers stepped in at the end of the week to arrest the decline, painting a weekly bar with a long lower tail. This is one of the classic signs of potential accumulation/buying pressure. Overall, the we...
Summary Central banker prudence and inflation-fighting resolve should err on the side of not conveying a rapidly concluding tightening cycle. Financial conditions almost immediately began to loosen globally, a loosening that has gathered important momentum early in 2023. Systemic ri...
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2024-05-29 00:40:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-04-09 13:32:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-03-20 13:34:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...