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Summary The JNK ETF did not make another leg higher when the S&P attacked the 4100 level last week, which in my book is an indication that the stock market is a little ahead of itself. As we come up to the FOMC meeting tomorrow, the Fed needs to be reminded that the bigger part of t...
Summary Inflation appears to be on the decline. The decline in inflation does not mean that prices are falling. The 12-month inflation rate is high, in part, because prices rose rapidly from December 2021 to October 2022. By William J. Luther Inflation appears to b...
Summary We don’t see major central bank rate cuts this year, so we prefer to earn income in short-term bonds, high-grade credit and agency mortgage-backed securities. U.S. stocks rose and Treasury yields were mostly steady. U.S. Q4 GDP was resilient but declining consumer spendin...
Summary The idea of a “soft landing” is only a reality if you exclude, in most cases, rather devasting financial consequences. So far, the economy seems to be holding up well despite an aggressive rate hiking campaign providing the cover for the “soft landing”...
Summary Last year saw the most aggressive policy tightening path in four decades, but Fed officials have laid the groundwork for more modest 25bp hikes in February and March. Recessionary forces are building though and inflation looks set to slow sharply from here, implying rates cuts w...
Summary The evidence indicates that the Fed’s rate hikes are having the desired effects. Subsequent reports indicate that retail sales fell to 1.1% annualized growth in December, driven by declines in car sales and sales of other goods; and this trend appears to have continued in...
Summary Consumer spending slowed sharply through the fourth quarter and we will need to see a rapid turnaround to prevent a contraction in the first quarter of this year. Meanwhile, the Fed's favoured measure of inflation is already undershooting the Fed's forecasts from last month, add...
Summary Conventional wisdom these days is that in order for the Fed to bring inflation down, they are going to have to kneecap the economy. Looking back at last year as a whole, real GDP shrank at a 1.1% annualized rate in the first half of the year, and grew at a 3.1% annualized rate i...
Summary The Federal Reserve’s policy making committee will meet January 31 to February 1, 2023, and their decision will be tough, more difficult than any of their 2022 choices. Inflation seems to be dropping, but at possibly unrealistic rates, while labor markets continue to show...
Summary For the past 18 months or so, I have argued that the surge in inflation which began about two years ago was fueled by a surge in the M2 money supply that began in the months following the Covid panic. Today we received the M2 number for December '22, and it showed that the money...
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2024-05-29 00:40:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-04-09 13:32:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-03-20 13:34:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...