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Summary The readings for October and November were also revised, taking a bite out of the “disinflation” scenario. The not-seasonally adjusted data was not revised. The core CPI was revised up for October, November, and December, showing much less “disinflation&...
Summary Falling inflation makes a soft landing seem more plausible. But strong employment growth makes it seem less plausible. Markets are desperate to corral or create a 'good news' outlook. But risk remain two sided; the Fed is serious and it is not bluffing. Badda...
Summary Last week, the Federal Reserve continued to decelerate its rate hikes with a quarter-point hike. Investors have been celebrating that the worst is behind us and the prospects of a soft landing in the economy is the base-case scenario. Despite the perceived Fed pivot, the Fed...
Summary One of the key assumptions behind commodity markets is that it is economic demand that drives pricing. It has been long-conflated that sentiment drives economic activity and that certain correlated indicators are believed to be economic measures and good predictors of future eco...
Summary Over the past couple of months, we have seen a clear downtrend emerge in the coincident measure of economic growth, suggesting we are on the path to recession. Inflation is also clearly rolling over. However, this is not the case within the labour market nor the services sector,...
Summary The recent path of inflation bears a striking resemblance to that of the 1970s, the last time that the Federal Reserve faced such a significant battle with inflation. Inflation will not necessarily follow the exact path as the 1970s. Inflation expectations are better anchore...
Summary Nominal interest rates plunged from 2.5% to zero during the Covid crisis of March 2020, and nominal interest rates rose sharply during 2022. With the recent rise in nominal interest rates, investors are moving from relatively lower-yielding bank accounts to higher-yielding alter...
Summary The broadest measure of the economy, real GDP, grew at a solid pace in the fourth quarter, rising at an annualized pace of 2.9 percent, following 3.2 percent in the third quarter. With data through December, all of the major measures of inflation showed moderation through year-e...
Summary We are now seeing clear signs of a broad-based decline in inflation. This is primarily being driven by goods and energy, while food inflation is likely to drive the next leg lower in CPI. Services and rent inflation however remain sticky, which are primarily being driven by ...
Summary Are interest rate hikes proving to be successful? What's next for the Fed after scaling back hikes. Where the inflation fight is heading next. After several months of aggressive rate hikes, inflation is finally showing signs of easing. Greg Bonnell speaks w...
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2024-05-29 00:40:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-04-09 13:32:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-03-20 13:34:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...