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Summary The consequences of decades of unsound money are coming home to roost. Investment-grade bond funds posted inflows of $184 million, while junk bond funds reported outflows of $6.125 billion (from Lipper). The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge rose last month ...
Summary Inflation is on a downward trajectory but will take time to return to target. Last week’s U.S. Consumer Price Index reading was in line with consensus expectations for January, with headline CPI increasing 0.5% month-over-month and 6.4% year-over-year. With the Januar...
Summary 7-10-year US Treasury yields have fallen faster than 1-3-year yields, which have remained anchored by a further 75bp of Fed tightening at the December and February FOMC meetings. The Fed could find itself forced to tighten more aggressively than predicted, should wage inflation ...
Summary Market sentiment regarding inflation has turned from one of excessive optimism about a decline in inflation to one of excessive pessimism about an increase. Inflation will decline in 2023, I think, but the decline will be gradual and volatile. Expectations of softening infla...
Summary Several central banks around the world, including the Federal Reserve, target a 2% inflation rate to help ensure the economy avoids deflation. Consumer Price Index measures the out-of-pocket expenditures for a specific set of goods and services from the perspective of consumers....
Summary With CPI inflation still declining, the tighter Fed policy is working. With Thursday morning’s second pass at Q4 ’22 GDP, we get to see the GDP deflator. Consensus (as well as Briefing.com’s forecast) is for +3.5%, the same as we saw for the first look at th...
Summary Inflation bounced back in January, which will likely make the Fed more cautious and increases the probability of further rate hikes. The increase in inflation was fairly broad based and not just the result of a change in basket weights. The latest inflation figures also need...
Summary The M2 measure of money supply is declining, and higher interest rates are increasing the demand for money; this is a one-two punch which is rapidly snuffing out inflation. There is still no sign of the kind of economic or financial market stress that would trigger a recession. ...
Summary The near-instantaneous analysis of January’s highly anticipated Consumer Price Index (CPI) report was impressive. It is questionable whether the uncertainties in the inflation outlook can be meaningfully reduced by looking at the individual trees in the inflation forest. ...
Summary A historical look at prior inflationary periods (1910s, 1940s, and 1970s) to see what they have to say about the 2020s. An analysis of two very different types of money creation: fiscal-driven inflation and lending-driven inflation. An outlook on investment opportunities for...
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2024-05-29 00:40:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-04-09 13:32:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-03-20 13:34:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...