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2023-04-30 05:36:00 ET Summary There have been glimmers of hope in 2023 that the inflation fixation of 2022 was a transitory phenomenon. Regulated prices tend to be more discrete and more lagged in their changes due to bureaucratic delays and their negotiated nature. In our vi...
2023-04-27 23:48:00 ET Summary I see the economy continuing to grow at about a 2% rate and I see inflation falling. Swap spreads and credit spreads continue to be relatively low and well-behaved. An economy growing at a modest 2% rate, inflation by all measures declining signi...
2023-04-26 02:20:00 ET Summary On April 25, the Fed released the M2 statistics for the month of March '23, and they were very encouraging. The decline in M2 which began about a year ago is accelerating, with the result that M2 has fallen by almost $900 billion (-4.1%) since its pe...
2023-04-26 01:47:00 ET Summary The change in core inflation during the two-year period following the beginning of a recession has averaged just -0.4%. Rate hikes have a disproportionate impact on interest-sensitive sectors such as housing and durable goods, but the effect on overa...
2023-04-25 12:20:00 ET Summary The general price trend in various US markets, utilizing the median performance of US Diversified Equity Funds (USDEF), measuring from the peak on 2/19/20 to last Thursday, saw a compound gain of +5.93%. However, for the last 2 years, the average USDEF l...
2023-04-23 03:59:00 ET Summary Financial theory teaches us that market prices are driven by the outcomes of perfectly rational creatures making split-second decisions fine-tuned to the optimal net present value alternative. There has been a distinct pattern in the bond market ever...
2023-04-22 04:15:00 ET Summary Recent outperformance by large-cap growth stocks may reflect a rotation into long-duration assets as the economy weakens and the turn in the rates cycle approaches. We remain cautious on equities in general, however, given uncertainty about the laggi...
2023-04-21 08:20:00 ET Summary While U.S. growth has remained strong, even accelerating in early 1Q, leading indicators continue to signal recession. Tighter lending standards, as a result of the recent banking crisis, only increase the risk of a hard landing. Part of the inflatio...
2023-04-20 14:16:00 ET Summary Can central banks simultaneously provide liquidity to banks suffering sharp deposit withdrawals while also slowing money and credit creation by raising interest rates? While the massive increase in the Fed balance sheet reserves provides additional l...
2023-04-19 03:09:00 ET Summary Aggressive monetary pressure finally saw meaningful impact in the first quarter, in the form of a bank liquidity crisis that required swift intervention by regulators to limit contagion. Markets reacted with volatility and, in anticipation of tighter...
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2024-05-29 00:40:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-04-09 13:32:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-03-20 13:34:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...