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2023-07-03 10:38:00 ET Summary Despite hawkish policymakers and very mixed economic data, the approaching plateau in rates brings more clarity and conviction to our fixed income views. The peak in rates will come as a relief for some, but if they stay at high levels it will keep t...
2023-07-03 09:30:00 ET Summary Powell talks tough on the inflation fight two weeks in a row without persuasive evidence that the Fed needs to do more. Threatening rate increases or actually implementing them does not mean the Fed is removing the liquidity punchbowl. The market...
2023-07-01 00:25:00 ET Summary The consensus opinion is inflation will fall to the 3% range or lower within 18 months or so. The data does not support this thesis. The greatest risk for investors is placing a bet that rates will fall when history does not support this outcome. ...
2023-06-29 23:20:00 ET Summary Inflation targeting has been a cornerstone of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy for several years. The Federal Reserve’s desire to minimize financial stress while managing disinflation is the primary motivation for revisiting the in...
2023-06-28 20:25:00 ET Summary According to data released yesterday, M2 increased by $131 billion in May, breaking a 9-month losing streak totaling just over $1 trillion. M2 has fallen 4% in the past 12 months, and is up only 0.9% in the past 24 months. Yet M2 is still about $...
2023-06-26 20:32:00 ET Summary One factor driving the recession talk is the Federal Reserve's higher interest rate push in an effort to lower the rate of inflation. With the stimulus dollars held in savings, consumers eventually began to get comfortable with spending and have been...
2023-06-26 11:05:00 ET Summary We see the outlook brightening for Japanese stocks vs. developed peers given fewer supply constraints, supportive monetary policy and corporate reforms. Developed market short-term bond yields rose last week after the Bank of England hiked rates agai...
2023-06-26 08:00:00 ET Summary Inflation remains stubbornly high, rate hikes are not over and the long, 40-year downtrend in interest rates is over. The Fed’s rate hikes have impacted housing more than any other sector of the economy, in expected ways and in some unexpected...
2023-06-24 23:55:00 ET Summary We think the macro factor that still matters most, at least for now, is inflation, notwithstanding how important these other elements may turn out to be. Emerging markets have performed well year to date despite continued rate hikes from the Fed, reg...
2023-06-22 10:45:00 ET Summary Fed funds futures continue to lean toward a one-and-done scenario, based on the highest estimated probability estimates for the next three Fed meetings. A simple model using unemployment and consumer prices to profile Fed policy suggests that a moder...
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2024-05-29 00:40:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-04-09 13:32:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-03-20 13:34:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...