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Summary Losses dominated market activity for the major asset classes in 2022. Commodities and cash are the exceptions. The big winner: broadly defined commodities. Overall, markets suffered far and wide, including losses for US stocks and bonds in the same calendar year. L...
Summary The BNDX seeks to track the performance of the Bloomberg Global Aggregate ex-USD index, which is heavily focused on European bonds and is currency hedged. While the yield on the BNDX has risen significantly over the past year, it remains too low to justify a long position in the...
Summary The Fed’s interest rate and liquidity tools are blunt instruments, particularly in a service-oriented economy. If inflation indeed moderates from here, it is likely that interest rate volatility moderates alongside it. Monetary policy has created the asset-on/asset-of...
Summary This week’s simulation shows that the most likely range for the 3-month U.S. Treasury bill yield in ten years is from 1% to 2%. There is a 24.59% probability that the 3-month yield falls in this range, a change from 23.80% one week before. The negative 2-year/10-year ...
Summary Dismissing asset allocation as ineffective has become popular in some circles in recent years, but the charge is demonstrably false. Decision to allocate into commodities, or not, probably explains a lot about the performance of multi-asset class portfolios this year. US REI...
Summary The negative 2-year/10-year Treasury spread has now persisted for 125 trading days, widening this week to a negative 91 basis points. Friday’s implied forward rate curve shows a quick rise in 1-month rates to an initial peak of 5.02% versus 5.00% last week. Rates fina...
Vanguard, the Valley Forge PA based firm and one of the world’s largest asset managers with more than $7T of investor capital under its belt has bolstered its exchange traded fund lineup with the addition of the Vanguard Short-Term Tax-Exempt Bond ETF ( VTES ). VTES aims to help ma...
Summary 1 or more years of additional interest-rate duration in ‘23 vs. ‘22, to be grown over time: As central banks slow, or pause, their tightening cycles, in sympathy with slowing economic growth and inflation. 6% to 6.5% of portfolio carry potential (including anticipa...
Summary Markets continue to fall and trailing yields continue to rise. The average yield for the major asset classes ticked up to 4.50%, based on trailing data through Dec. 19, according to data from Morningstar.com. The future’s still uncertain, which implies that hedging yo...
Summary As the stock market went up the first two days of the week, more shares transacted at rising prices. A leading retail-oriented broker indicated their clients have been buying mostly corporate/municipal bonds and commodities, while selling declining US government bonds. The t...
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2024-07-10 03:26:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-06-20 05:32:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-06-10 06:22:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...