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TBF is an ETF which is short long-dated bonds as reflected in the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index. 30-year rates have had a violent reset higher in 2022, closing in on their 2018 highs. We are of the opinion that the bulk of the rates move is behind us and the "easy money" i...
Forward rates implied by the US Treasury yield curve jumped again this week, rising to a peak of 4.34%. This week’s simulation shows that the most likely range for the 3-month U.S. Treasury bill yield in ten years is from 0% to 1%. For the 10-year Treasury yield, the most l...
All ETF asset classes saw net buying in April, particularly commodities. North America Equities was April's most actively-traded ETF category. The iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF was the month's most heavily-traded fund. For further details see: Tradeweb Exchange-Tra...
This article updates my July 2021 article, "Time to De-Risk." While the Wilshire 5000 declined 18.2% YTD, S&P 500 Q1 numbers were strong: 79% companies beat expectations, revenue up 9%, earnings up 13%. Trends are favorable for Total Market Cap/GDP, Shiller CAPE, P/E, P/B, P/S...
I-Bonds are currently offering a very attractive yield of nearly 10% beginning in May! The principal remains super safe even with the big increase in yield. What is there not to like? The high yield and super-safe principal combine to provide a very good inflation hedge. For...
The Federal Reserve is maintaining its new policy rate of interest, which is 50 basis points above the previous level: The effective Federal Funds rate is now at 0.83 percent. Since March 16, the date the last rate move took place, "excess reserves" in the banking system have declined...
Why markets have been falling ever since the Fed hiked rates? Why bonds may now provide improved opportunities for investors? Volatility likely isn't going anywhere anytime soon. So, what should investors do? For further details see: Markets Sell Off As Volatility Spikes...
Declining interest rates since 2008 have increased the challenges substantially for bond investors. Bonds, like any other asset class, are subject to cyclicality and should be treated as such. Alternative assets offer a good rotation into higher returns but lack of liquidity and t...
Managed futures typically does well in market crisis periods when all risk assets correlate. Hedge funds keep acting like a different flavor of the stock market, while commodities continue their relentless inflationary march higher. Eight more months of this will keep us all on ou...
Our portfolio has eclipsed all benchmarks both on a YoY and YTD basis with our contrarian, obscure stock and mid-cap approach with an exaggerated risk aversion. We discuss the logic behind our general style and why it is structurally advantaged against indices, and how it contributed ...
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2024-07-10 03:26:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-06-20 05:32:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-06-10 06:22:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...