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We view the U.S. Treasury yield spike as resolving a disconnect between the powerful restart and lower yields in recent months, and stay tactically pro-risk. U.S. 10-year yields jumped to the highest level in three months. Markets are prone to volatility, but ultimately we see yields ...
Most of the market “data” everyone obsesses about is just noise, especially when it comes to economic data. We just finished another quarter during which a lot of things were supposedly newsworthy but somehow produced almost nothing in the way of major market movements. ...
The Treasury curve continued to flatten during the third quarter of 2021, with short-term Treasury yields rising while longer Treasury yields declined. As the Treasury curve flattened, we saw minimal movement in the already tight spreads of corporates and taxable municipals. At th...
A fixed income investment can serve as diversifier against equities, a source of income, or even protection against inflation when using TIPS. As interest rates and inflation expectations evolve, a tactical rules-based approach to portfolio optimization can help provide investors with...
The U.S. Treasury is preparing for coupon cuts, but the impact on private supply will be nuanced. Without significant coupon cuts, the percent of debt outstanding in T-Bills will fall well below the Treasury recommended 15% to 20%. The actions of the Federal Reserve’s Asset...
My reading of the current environment is relatively clear; both the longer term and shorter-term leading growth indicators are pointing toward the heightened possibility of slowing cyclical growth. As a result, these downward trends suggest investors ought to be rotating out of the re...
Since bonds are loans to borrowers, a bond’s interest rate is tied to the prevailing rate environment at the time of issuance. Historically speaking, from the time yield curves begin to invert, the span to the next recession runs roughly 9-months. However, note that yield curve...
US inflation continued to soar in May, with the Core Consumer Price Index up 0.7% month over month and 3.8% year over year. Fears around rising rates center on the rapidly recovering US economy, which will soon require tapering of purchases in the US Federal Reserve’s quantitat...
As of the June FOMC meeting, there are now seven policymakers projecting the first increase to occur in 2022, up from just four at the March gathering. It only needs three more members to move into the 2022 camp for the Fed Funds estimate to change. Investors did get to see a snap...
A more hawkish Fed may not lift Treasury or investment grade credit yields, and that raises important questions for fixed income investors and asset allocators. The central bank raised its inflation forecast for 2022. Should last week’s change of tone put some of those infl...
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2024-07-10 03:28:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-06-30 04:34:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-06-10 06:24:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...