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The Treasury yield curve has seen a considerable shift up since the beginning of the year. Today, the 10-year Treasury note is trading in line with the Fed’s expected neutral rate, and there are signs traditional bond-equity correlations are returning. Due in large part to ...
The peak in forward rates underlying the U.S. Treasury yield curve closed the week 20 basis points below last week. The probability of an inverted yield remains high, peaking at 41.8%, compared to 35.2% last week, in the 91-day quarterly period ending February 17, 2023. This week&...
Forward rates implied by the US Treasury yield curve jumped again this week, rising to a peak of 4.34%. This week’s simulation shows that the most likely range for the 3-month U.S. Treasury bill yield in ten years is from 0% to 1%. For the 10-year Treasury yield, the most l...
Why markets have been falling ever since the Fed hiked rates? Why bonds may now provide improved opportunities for investors? Volatility likely isn't going anywhere anytime soon. So, what should investors do? For further details see: Markets Sell Off As Volatility Spikes...
Our portfolio has eclipsed all benchmarks both on a YoY and YTD basis with our contrarian, obscure stock and mid-cap approach with an exaggerated risk aversion. We discuss the logic behind our general style and why it is structurally advantaged against indices, and how it contributed ...
Friday’s implied forward rate curve shows a quick rise in 1-month rates to an initial peak of 3.46%, versus 3.32% last week. Rates finally peak again at 4.25%, compared to 3.87% previously, and then decline to a lower plateau at the end of the 30-year horizon. The probabili...
Time has come today. The big bang comes at the Fed's Wednesday meeting. Today's forecast shows only modest adjustments in the 10-year distribution for interest rates, knowing full well something is going to happen on Wednesday. The outcome is a true test of the market's abili...
Expects the bond market volatility to come off the boil a little bit or even better, see a rally in yields. There's a lot already priced into the bond market with respect to central bank interest rate hikes. Michael Craig, Head of Asset Allocation and Derivatives, TD Asset Managem...
Treasury yields this week have seen some dramatic changes, but the long-term outlook is surprisingly little changed. This week’s simulation shows that the most likely range for the 3-month U.S. Treasury bill yield in ten years is from 0% to 1%. There is a 28.73% probability...
We're now in an environment today where returns have been challenged and volatility has been elevated. For investors, that can be a challenging period to operate in. Higher rates, although painful on the way up, have uncovered or introduced a bit more value in a market where value had...
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2024-02-18 19:36:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2023-11-26 04:30:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
NEWPORT BEACH, Calif., Oct. 28, 2022 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- PIMCO, one of the world’s premier fixed income investment managers, has announced its intent to transfer the exchange listing of its actively managed exchange-traded fund, PIMCO Active Bond Exchange-Traded Fund (BOND), to the N...