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Friday was the eighth day of inverted Treasury yields and it is highly likely yields stay inverted even in January 2023. This week’s simulation shows that the most likely range for the 3-month U.S. Treasury bill yield in ten years is from 0% to 1%. For the 10-year Treasury ...
At the heart of this market volatility is inflation uncertainty, which results in policy uncertainty. The U.S. Federal Reserve (“Fed”), once the leader of “team transitory” is shifting its strategy. The May CPI upside surprise, along with the University of ...
We see a new era of volatile inflation and growth sweeping aside a period of moderation. We downgrade equities and upgrade credit in this new regime. U.S. jobs data last Friday reinforced the supply shock causing persistent inflation. Yields resumed their rise as markets priced higher...
The flirtation with an inverted 2-year/10-year Treasury spread has turned to true love, with a negative spread (currently negative 3 basis points) for the last 3 trading days. This week’s simulation shows that the most likely range for the 3-month U.S. Treasury bill yield in te...
While bond yields have steadied in recent weeks, economic and financial conditions are still not supportive of bonds resuming their role as a hedge. Until inflation really slows, bonds remain as much a source of risk as a hedge. My view is yields either need to be moderately highe...
Since the Fed first implemented its “zero interest rate policy” in the wake of the financial crisis, investors have been left with a bond market landscape that presented many challenges from an income perspective. With the dynamic duo of inflation and a Fed tightening po...
If inflation and rate increases do not rise above current market expectations, however, there is a case for longer-duration instruments. Asset allocation models are well documented across the investment universe, and portfolio diversification is a widely accepted principle. Histor...
As the Treasury curve flattened and yields rose, spreads on investment-grade corporates and taxable municipals continued to show signs of weakness. Wider spreads and longer durations hurt our performance during the quarter, but locking in higher book yields should be beneficial to our...
We left a stimulated expansion and rising US stock market for a contracting “bear market” and likely economic recession. The stock market performed its traditional function by discounting the future and falling before an economic contraction began. Over the last two week...
The outlook for long-run Treasury yields stabilized this week, despite some movement in short-term 1-month forward rates. The probability of an inverted yield remains high, peaking at 47.6%, compared to 52.5% last week, in the 91-day quarterly period ending December 30, 2022. This...
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2024-02-18 19:36:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2023-11-26 04:30:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
NEWPORT BEACH, Calif., Oct. 28, 2022 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- PIMCO, one of the world’s premier fixed income investment managers, has announced its intent to transfer the exchange listing of its actively managed exchange-traded fund, PIMCO Active Bond Exchange-Traded Fund (BOND), to the N...