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2024-03-23 06:30:00 ET Summary Based on the valuation measures, we find best correlated with actual subsequent S&P 500 total returns across a century of market cycles. Because stocks are ultimately a claim on future cash flows that must be delivered over time, higher starting ...
2024-03-21 06:52:00 ET Summary Every part of my being knew that I could not liquidate my portfolio, but my emotions kept driving me towards the sell button. I realized that betting against the US economy and equity markets was akin to betting against the policymakers, human ingenu...
2024-03-20 09:30:00 ET Summary The outlook for each future quarter's dividends has improved in the period from mid-November 2023 to mid-March 2024. The market turbulence would most likely take place during the upcoming quarter of 2024-Q2, which would subsequently show up in the di...
2024-03-12 05:35:00 ET Summary The S&P 500 dipped during the first full trading week of March 2024; the index closed out the week at 5,123.69. The Fed's confirmation followed last week's hint from Fed officials that they plan to implement a new kind of quantitative easing-styl...
2024-03-11 08:35:00 ET Summary The big reversal in Nvidia got a lot of attention on Friday, as the market darling closed down 5% on heavy volume. The problem for the S&P 500 is, everything seems overbought, if you scrutinize the above sector snapshot from this weekend’s...
S&P 500 earnings data (courtesy of IBES data by Refinitiv) continues to show positive sequential increases in weekly S&P 500 earnings estimates for various time frames, which is usually a good thing. The correction being seen in the US equity market - at least so far anyway - isn't s...
In this article, I’ll be talking about the extreme concentration driving the S&P 500 index and the five mega-tech stocks that have given rise to the index’s forbidding valuation. I’ll also be letting you know about enticing value stocks that can reduce portfolio risk a...
Editors' Note: This is the transcript of the podcast we posted last week. Please note that due to time and audio constraints, transcription may not be perfect. We encourage you to listen to the podcast, embedded below, if you need any clarification. We hope you enjoy. Sign up fo...
2020's summer rally for the S&P 500 (Index: SPX ) came to a crashing end on September 3, 2020. It turns out a good portion of the rally that preceded its sudden was juiced by an unusual investment strategy launched by Japan's SoftBank (SFTBY), a venture capital investment bank that appe...
Each week, when the core IBES data by Refinitiv is dropped into the spreadsheets, I try and think about which of the datasets is most meaningful. This week, this table wasn't what was expected: The expected y/y revenue growth for Q3 and Q4 '20 is still improving as we approach the quarters...