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Summary A global recession is likely, with at least slower economic growth virtually certain. The tightening is not a mistake, but in most cases it’s coming too late, which means more economic damage than it had begun earlier. Businesses selling to China can expect lowe...
Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This report optimizes tradi...
Summary The market is firmly positioned for further rate hikes and higher inflation. Under the surface, spot commodity prices are not reflecting this reality. If and when other macro charts align (e.g., lower USD, lower yields), this will present a bountiful opportunity to lon...
Summary The Fed’s GDP growth forecast was lowered to just .2% in 2022 and 1.2% in 2023 and well below the 2.5% US GDP growth capacity estimate. The US 2 and 30-year Treasury yield curve inverted 58 bps, the most since 2000. If December 2022 ends this hiking cycle, follo...
Summary A lot of inflation expectations are driven by energy prices and perhaps more modestly, by the costs of basic foodstuffs. Inflation expectations are also linked tightly to agricultural prices, most particularly corn. Backwardation, or inversion, has characterized the cr...
Summary Although consumers are benefiting from robust labor markets and strong balance sheets, they appear reluctant to buy high-cost durable goods. A key to navigating inflation risk is understanding its relationship with asset class returns. Historically, high-inflation episodes...
Summary The iShares Russell 1000 ETF has corrected 11% off its August peak as the market grapples with a new interest-rate regime. The Fed is expected to hike its policy rate by another 75 bp at Wednesday's FOMC meeting. With a terminal rate surging to 4.5%, equity valuations ...
Summary Investors saw a “transitory” error in 2021. The Fed woke up late last year. That makes 2022 a year of "transition." The central bank and administration redefine a recession. Commodity prices will correct as interest rates rise for three reasons. And a...
Summary The U.S. CPI report is still the most important economic report of the month. The violent sell-off in response to what was a small upside surprise to U.S. core inflation in August is all you need to know. Markets would like to see a sustained roll-over in inflation and an ...
Summary Mitigating the impact of inflation might mean cutting interest rate sensitivity by favoring shorter-dated fixed income but also trimming speculative growth exposure in equity portfolios. The market appears to seize on any sign of easing inflation to be bullish, while remai...
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2024-07-18 19:38:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-07-08 17:12:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-06-08 19:28:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...