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The broader stock market has started July by moving out of bear market territory and conditions could be aligning for a summer rally, according to BofA Securities. The S&P ( SP500 ) ( NYSEARCA: SPY ) has been up in the last four session, a streak not seen since late ...
The 'inflation trades', which were so hysterical to the upside in the spring have been hammered to a buying opportunity now, as the "last inflated man standing" (energy) has cracked. Oversold and generally at support, the commodity complex is preparing to bounce at least and rally har...
Even though I expect reported inflation to remain uncomfortably high through at least the end of this year, it's becoming clear, on the margin, that the inflation dynamics are improving for the better. A strong dollar has almost always coincided with weak commodity prices, but we saw ...
Yesterday, commodity prices crashed as speculators feared demand destruction due to rising recessionary risks. Although the reasoning for the selloff is certainly not positive for the broader economy, investors breathed a sigh of relief as one of the major economic/market headwinds ea...
The revised long-term outlook projects an annualized return of 4.9%. The current risk premium forecast for GMI suggests that multi-asset-class strategies overall will generate lower returns relative to results posted in recent years. Combining forecasts via several models may prov...
If higher prices, which have now broadened, are allowed to persist, they can become sticky. A wage-price spiral, where rising wages beget rising prices, which cause further pressure on wages, certainly could allow inflation to be a challenge for longer than expected. In general, tradi...
Commodities prices have spiked as demand from the restart clashed with tightening supply. We see the war and net-zero transition keeping prices high. U.S. and euro area inflation data last week showed still-persistent inflation. Stocks and bond yields fell as markets priced more risk ...
If we are entering a deep recession, commodities led by crude oil could fall dramatically in price. A sharp crude oil runup reversing into a collapse in pricing has a clear precedent historically - the Great Recession year of 2008. As I have suggested since the spring in previous ...
We left a stimulated expansion and rising US stock market for a contracting “bear market” and likely economic recession. The stock market performed its traditional function by discounting the future and falling before an economic contraction began. Over the last two week...
This year is shaping up to be historic in terms of real asset performance, according to BofA Securities. In his weekly Flow Show note, strategist Michael Hartnett wrote Friday that in real terms, government bonds ( TBT ) ( TLT ) ( SHY ) are on course for their worst perf...
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On Thursday, May 16th, U.S. stock markets closed in the red as investors adjusted their rate-cut expectations following data showing a sl...
On Wednesday, May 16th, U.S. stock markets closed significantly higher, with major indexes reaching record highs. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq each c...
On Tuesday, May 15th, U.S. stock markets closed higher, with the Nasdaq reaching a record closing high. Both the S&P 500 and Dow Jones also saw...