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K2 Advisors team is monitoring economic growth, earnings, supply chains, and inflation for clues as to whether central banks can achieve the elusive soft landing. Central bank policy paths are a clear focal point for markets as policymakers seek to navigate above-target inflation and ...
Many important commodities are in major declines off highs hit earlier in 2022. A still-strong U.S. jobs market and decent wage growth point to massive CPI readings to come. A better-than-expected Advance Retail Sales report might concern the Fed ahead of the FOMC's July 27 meetin...
The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF appears to have bottomed after a brutal 7-month downtrend. The Treasury market action indicates the Fed could drive the economy into a recession, and inflation is peaking. Investors can hedge equities and profit from this dynamic by buying lo...
On Wednesday, the Consumer Price Index came in at a 9.1% annual rate. The higher-than-expected reading puts the CPI at a new 41-year high. Businesses are also getting squeezed. On Thursday, the Producer Price Index showed wholesale costs rising at a massive 11.3% year-over-year. T...
The S&P 500 remains above the 3,810 May 20th low print and the June 17th low print of 3,636.87. Crude oil has not made a new high since March ’22, copper has fallen sharply as have many of the grain and other commodity prices. The sentiment is horrible around both stock...
We see a new era of volatile inflation and growth sweeping aside a period of moderation. We downgrade equities and upgrade credit in this new regime. U.S. jobs data last Friday reinforced the supply shock causing persistent inflation. Yields resumed their rise as markets priced higher...
With the Fed voicing its intention of reversing its easing policy and beginning to tighten, it is logical that sooner or later signs of less liquidity would begin to surface. The area of commodity futures is more often based on speculation than anything concrete. It is also highly lev...
The broader stock market has started July by moving out of bear market territory and conditions could be aligning for a summer rally, according to BofA Securities. The S&P ( SP500 ) ( NYSEARCA: SPY ) has been up in the last four session, a streak not seen since late ...
The 'inflation trades', which were so hysterical to the upside in the spring have been hammered to a buying opportunity now, as the "last inflated man standing" (energy) has cracked. Oversold and generally at support, the commodity complex is preparing to bounce at least and rally har...
Even though I expect reported inflation to remain uncomfortably high through at least the end of this year, it's becoming clear, on the margin, that the inflation dynamics are improving for the better. A strong dollar has almost always coincided with weak commodity prices, but we saw ...
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On Thursday, May 2, the U.S. stock markets closed higher as investors evaluated the Federal Reserve’s dovish rate guidance and mixe...
On Wednesday, May 1st, the U.S. stock markets closed mixed after the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady and hinted at a possible future rat...
On Tuesday, April 30th, the U.S. stock markets closed sharply lower, influenced by economic reports indicating increasing labor costs and falling c...