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The New Normal looks a lot like the Old Normal in that it is unknown and ever changing. All we can do is observe the present with clear eyes. For now, the economic outlook is still pretty good. It isn’t the boom everyone was expecting a few months ago, and it probably wonȁ...
Growth-oriented asset classes are likely to shine, but not equally. Above-trend growth is a supportive environment of risky assets like equities or credit. On valuation grounds, equities are looking a little cheaper. Geraldine Sundstrom and Erin Browne discuss PIMCO’s views...
At the FOMC meeting, the median outlook for core inflation this year drifted up to three percent from 2.1 percent (though the long-term inflation outlook didn’t change). Of more direct market consequence, the median “dot plot” around the Fed funds rate in 2023 had...
While some investors welcomed the dramatic increase in commodities prices so far this year, others saw them as a warning sign of real inflation coming to the United States and other markets. A recent survey of fund managers found that nearly three-quarters of them believe that inflati...
The Dow Jones Industrial Average powered ahead another 654 points last month (+1.9%) to a new record level (34,529) and the S&P 500 also closed at a new monthly high (+0.6% to 4,204). The U.S. COVID-19 pandemic has essentially come to an end for now and stock prices have continued...
The major asset classes delivered across-the-board gains for a second month in a row in May. Everything apart from cash was up last month, led by a sizzling rally in foreign inflation-linked government bonds. The FTSE Russell World Inflation Index ex-US surged 4.0% last month, the...
China’s “zero tolerance” warning to commodity speculators over the weekend sent prices of some metals and iron ore tumbling. Bloomberg reported the government had also threatened severe punishment for violators indulging in excessive speculation and fake news in t...
Bitcoin has had two bear markets since mid-April. There was a 27% decline followed by a 27% rally, followed by last week’s rout. From its intraday peak in April to its intraday low last week, bitcoin fell over 53%. Is that the end of the sell-off? Doubts about the post-virus bo...
Will the 2021 great commodities boom continue? Are we at the start of a commodities supercyle? Commodities as a hedge to inflation. For further details see: The 2021 Great Commodities Boom: Metals, Crops And Energy Prices Rise
The first quarter of 2021 brought what the Asset Allocation Committee expected, and as it looks to the next six to 12 months, it faces two questions. Do we think the economy will overheat, pushing bond yields to levels that unsettle equity markets or even force central banks to stifle...