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Summary Year-to-date, allocations to floating rate notes have resulted in a more than 20% performance differential compared to U.S. 10-Year notes. Rising rates explain why owning the same securities as the Agg but reducing the maturity profile (1–5 years) led to losses that...
Summary As I've argued in recent posts, there's plenty of evidence to suggest the Fed has already tightened by enough to bring inflation down. The dollar is super-strong, real yields have risen sharply, the yield curve is inverted, commodity prices are plunging, and the housing ma...
Summary The US National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI), designed to gauge market conditions, fell to 38 in October from 46 in September, now 50% lower than it was six months ago (below 50 is considered negative), and the largest year over ye...
Summary With the latest index value of 38, the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index is now nearly where it had been in May 2020 during the lockdown and below where it had been in February 2007, on the way down into Housing Bust 1. Traffic is a sign of interest among potential hom...
Summary In recent months, the economy has shown remarkable resilience in the face of a cyclical downturn. As such, we remain in a situation where positive economic data (i.e. resilient Q3 corporate earnings) could be considered bearish as such an outcome will delay any hope of a dovis...
Summary With inflation having soared, the Fed has shifted in 2022 to withdrawing accommodation, raising rates, and shrinking its balance sheet. As for the U.S. real economy, rate hikes hit first through their direct impact on mortgage rates. Future housing construction is like...
Summary In what was an especially turbulent month past, the MBS market recorded back-to-back underperformances for the first time all year. September fared its worst of 2022, and the worst of all time, besting July 2003’s great Refi wave (-153bps) and October 2008’s ...
Summary In the week ended September 30, demand for mortgages to purchase a home plunged by 13%, seasonally adjusted, from the already beaten-down levels in the prior week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association on Wednesday. The weekly drop was in part caused by Hurricane I...
Summary Rising mortgage rates and a lack of affordability are prompting a steep drop-off in demand for housing. At the same time inventory for sale is on the rise. A combination of falling transactions and prices will intensify the recessionary forces the US economy is facing....
Summary Income investors seeking to boost yields often find themselves depending on higher-yielding investments such as bank loans, high-yield bonds and dividend-paying equities. The key to an efficient income portfolio is selecting the most impactful building blocks and assemblin...
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2024-03-01 04:08:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-02-08 15:22:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-01-18 00:52:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...