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Value continues to trounce growth stocks within the style asset class across all market caps, and the longer-term returns tell us that growth might continue to lag for some time. It’s impossible to say how long the style “alpha” will be sustained. Growth stocks ha...
Our macroeconomic forecasting team assesses how the war and latest survey data have altered the economic outlook, policymaking and recession risks. Global growth was dragged lower, principally by steep contractions in Russia and mainland China. Barring the initial COVID-19 outbreak, M...
The map of the Asset Allocation Committee’s market views is a buzz of activity this quarter. Coming into 2022, we anticipated slower growth compared with the steep recovery levels of 2021 and inflation that was declining but persistent—and problematic due to its origins ...
With oil prices spiking and investors avoiding volatile names, only a few themes have worked: energy and defensive stocks. With economic growth likely to slow and earnings growth harder to come by, companies able to grow earnings should garner renewed interest. To the extent reces...
The debate between high yield and dividend growth investors is fascinating and I try to service both sides. In today's article, I discuss a case of high dividend growth. Moody's business is currently suffering from uncertainty, but the long-term growth trend is based on double-digit E...
We believe the conflict in Ukraine may turn out to be less critical for equity markets than the upcoming turn we anticipate in the economic growth cycle. In the near term, we expect the S&P 500 Index (S&P 500) to continue to recover from its March trough. We expect the dis...
The nature of the economic cycle, originally due to the COVID pandemic, has been amplified. The ongoing lockdowns and the military conflict in Europe have prompted us to revise our inflation projections further. The dynamic shifting of corporate winners and losers is a constant an...
Rising interest rates tend to hurt growth stocks, and more specifically tech stocks due to their high price-to-earnings ratios and low dividend payments. The S&P 500 is trading at its cheapest since before the pandemic, with a current P/E ratio of about 25.6. Inflation and sup...
The risk of double-digit inflation is real, as soaring commodity and agricultural input prices could have lagging and lasting effects on food prices. Cash is a traditional alternative to U.S. Treasuries from a diversification standpoint, but soaring inflation limits its typical store ...
With inflation at the highest level in decades and interest rates on the rise, equity investors are questioning their next moves. We could see inflation move toward its new long-run trend starting in the second half of this year. Companies generally have been able to manage higher...