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The European Economies It's not really valid to talk of a European economy, that being exactly the problem there is with the euro. Having the one currency means that monetary conditions must be the same across those different European economies. An example of this is that the UK economy seem...
By David F. Hoffman, CFA In June of 1984, I was a young portfolio manager finding myself at odds with the wisdom of the day. Yields on 30-year Treasuries had rebounded from 10% to 14% as inflation had bounced from 2.5% and was running at just over 4%. The leading sages of the day were very...
A central banker's nightmare is losing control of inflation expectations. Whereas decades ago, the challenge facing major central banks was reining in overly high inflation expectations - a process that ushered in central banks' independence and inflation targets - the European Central Bank's ...
By Andrew Mulliner, CFA The July 25 European Central Bank ((ECB)) meeting was billed as the most important ECB meeting of the last few years. Today's statement and press conference, read in isolation, mark a significant statement of intent regarding the ECB's willingness and ability to "do...
By Bill Witherell, Ph.D. Just days after US President Trump announced a ceasefire and resumption of trade negotiations with China, the US Trade Representative proposed new tariffs on 89 European Union ((EU)) goods worth $4 billion. These levies are in response to concerns about aircraft su...
These macroeconomic numbers The reason we look at these varied macroeconomic statistics is that we want to know, divine, if and when the economy is going to turn. We know very well that we've not abolished the business cycle and quite clearly we want, as investors, to be differently orientat...
The European Council's decision to propose Christine Lagarde and Ursula von der Leyen as the presidential candidates for the European Central Bank ((ECB)) and European Commission, respectively, sends three subtle but important messages to financial markets: 1) Continuity. Other candidates,...
It is a "War," of sorts. It does not involve armaments or tanks or military armies running over the Continent but it is the third world conflict for the control and domination of Europe. While everyone focuses on the trade wars with America and China, and some focus on what is happening with I...
By Erik Norland The eurozone's economic expansion has hit a soft patch. Manufacturing has been shrinking for four months - but not at an alarming pace that would indicate a recession. The services sector continues to expand but at a much slower pace than in 2017 and 2018. Except for France...
On June 18th, 2019, ECB's vice president said another large bond-buying program could be an option if inflation in the region doesn't reach its intended target. As you can see in the following chart from Trading Economics , the inflation rate is dropping in the Eurozone and is currently b...