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Fundamentals are in place for a major EM crisis, and I see reasonable probabilities of an unfolding crisis in Turkey providing the catalyst. Meanwhile, complacency in "developed" markets remains formidable. Is systemic crisis even possible while the major central banks are running ful...
We believe the Brazilian bond market has overpriced policy tightening over the next 12 to 18 months. Real rates will likely remain quite low for some time given the protracted post-COVID recovery and available spare capacity in the economy. While Brazil is among the first major EM...
Considering the major jump in volatility at the end of February, for our latest survey we sought an updated consensus over the managers' thoughts on the speed of economic recovery. Additionally, we asked what their inflation expectations going forward are, and whether higher rates in ...
In reaction to the COVID-19 outbreak last March, emerging markets (EMs) initially sold off more sharply than developed markets (DMs), but saw a stronger recovery owed to higher commodity prices and robust demand from China. Continued performance in EMs is likely to be driven by a weak...
Only funds with yields over 7.5%, coverage higher than 90% and trading at a discount are considered. Top lists of discount, yield, DxY and DxYxZ are given. The top DxYxZ funds are DSL, HIO, and HPI. For further details see: 'High-High-Low' Closed-End Fund Report, Februar...
Emerging markets debt could benefit in 2021 from a favorable combination of factors - such as improving global growth and ample liquidity conditions. The positive global macro backdrop should be conducive to risk-taking that encourages a rotation away from safe havens such as the U.S....
We expect the Chinese economy to experience a solid year of growth. The IMF is currently forecasting 7.9% real GDP growth in 2021 - well above trend growth. On the other hand, we continue to think that monetary policy is going to become less accommodative. On an international leve...
In the midst of the unprecedented COVID shock, many EM central banks quickly shifted to extraordinarily easy monetary policy. For speculative-grade EM sovereign bonds, the worries are more structural in nature. There are plenty of global "push" factors to encourage investors to mo...
After an extremely challenging 2020, we expect a strong global economic recovery in 2021. Historically, EM crises have been driven by unsustainable debt dynamics, currency crises, and/or financial sector disruptions. This is not the case today. Valuations in the EM hard currency s...
Climate change has made the world a riskier place. Financial risks created by climate change are felt more acutely by developing economies, especially those that are not adequately prepared. As countries seek a sustainable path of recovery from the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic...
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2024-07-21 06:36:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-07-11 03:48:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-06-21 06:06:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...