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By Christopher Gannatti, CFA, Head of Research, Europe When the VIX hit 36 at the end of December 2018, the last thing we would have thought would be that risk-on strategies might have a strong month in January 2019. It would have represented a strong trend reversal. But it's exactly wha...
Source: Ibankcoin.com The S&P 500/SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF ( SPY ) is at a critical juncture right now. SPY at $280 (2,800 SPX/S&P 500) represents a crucial technical resistance level. Furthermore, stocks have been on a tear since markets bottomed late last year, are now signif...
Editor's note: This article was originally published on Feb. 23, 2019 by Menzie Chinn here . Recessions, once they are underway, happen fast - a lot faster than expansions. Who's forecasting recessions, according to the WSJ February survey (the February Survey of Professional Forecast...
Last weekend , we discussed the two things driving the markets currently: " The first is the Fed. As we discussed with our RIA PRO subscribers last week, "Today, [Cleveland Fed Reserve Governor Loretta Mester] all but put the kibosh on further rate hikes and, per Mester'...
I've heard many times that we can talk ourselves into a recession by too many doom-and-gloom discussions. We seem to be running that experiment right now, with rising concerns about an economic downturn. But a look at history shows we never have talked ourselves into recession, and the likelih...
In my last eight posts, I looked at aspects of corporate behavior from investments to financing to dividend policy, using the data that I collected at the start of 2019, to examine what companies share in common, and what makes them different. In summary, I found that the rise in risk premiums...
It infects every boardroom across the world. Big business requires decent forecasting, yet time and again it seems they are deprived of what they desperately need. Instead, even after this last decade, the world's largest companies continue to be surprised by weakness that is far more prevalen...
The Dow Jones Industrial Average saw its worst December performance since the Great Depression. But stocks have bounced back, and the markets have recovered nearly all of their losses. Is there more room to run? Kim Parlee speaks with Michael Craig, senior portfolio Manager at TD Ass...