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Summary The curve is pricing a rapid decline in rates after they reach their peak in 2023. We do not anticipate the ECB to diverge from previous targets here, though we might get information on how special situations will be dealt with. We don’t see this week’s policy ...
Summary Traders will focus on the FOMC decision, but they should also closely watch mega-cap tech earnings and the nonfarm payroll report. Economic data releases include India’s fiscal deficit, eight infrastructure industries, and both manufacturing and services PMIs. Cryptos...
Summary Bond markets are under some pressure today. The Australian dollar rose a little more than 2% this week to lead the G10 currencies. Trade and inventories continued to confuse the underlying signals from US GDP. Overview: Leaving aside the Australian dollar, whic...
Summary The euro finally settled above $1.09 yesterday, but follow-through buying has been limited. The dollar is more broadly mixed today, with the dollar bloc and Norwegian krone leading the advancers. The recovery of US equity indices yesterday after gap-lower openings failed to ...
Summary Amid sharp losses in the US equity futures, the US dollar is mostly firmer against the G10 currencies. While economists have turned more optimistic toward the eurozone, and Germany in particular, the IFO survey was not so impressive. Weakness in US equity futures may have he...
Summary The preliminary PMI readings are mixed. Japan and the eurozone look somewhat better, but Australia and the UK disappointed. Europe's STOXX 600 is off around 0.4%, posted one losing session a week in the first three weeks of the year. US futures are a little softer. The dolla...
Summary The dollar was a reliable risk-off hedge in 2022 as skyrocketing inflation pushed bond/stock correlations further into positive territory. A mild winter helped European gas prices to get back below pre-war levels. The U.S. terminal rate is in sight and the market expects the...
Summary Everyone wants to buy bonds right now because everyone knows the US is headed for recession. But neither the 10-year, the 2-year or shorter-term yields are currently falling at a pace that we would expect just prior to recession. If we go into recession you’ll make mo...
Summary The Lunar New Year holiday has shut many centers in Asia until the middle of the week, though China's mainland is on holiday all week. Ahead of the weekend, the NASDAQ posted its single biggest advance since last November. The downtrend line drawn of January 2022 highs in the S&...
Summary We outline four different paths for EUR/SEK in 2023 based on developments in four key areas: global risk sentiment, Europe’s economic performance/energy prices, Riksbank-ECB policy divergence and Sweden's domestic economy. Our baseline scenario is moderately bearish for E...
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