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Summary After large moves yesterday, the capital markets are quieter today and stocks are mostly firmer. Strong nominal wage increases in Japan and a hawkish hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia helped their respectively currencies recover, though they remained within yesterday's range...
Summary The implications for financial markets of Russia’s Ukrainian invasion 2.0 need to be considered, as this event is being properly priced by the markets. If the bigger invasion 2.0 unfolds quickly, expect a high level of volatility in both euros and rubles. During invas...
Summary The euro barely traded above $1.08 today (the high was about $1.0805), and selling pressure was strongest in the European morning, where the session low has been recorded (~$1.0760). The dollar is broadly higher as what we suspect is an overdue correction is unfolding, aided by ...
Summary Equities and bonds rallied in January, clawing back some losses from last year. The reopening of supply chains and the still strong labor markets have seen the pendulum of sentiment push away from the pessimism seen in the waning months of 2022. Weaker energy prices lower th...
Summary The dollar is around 10% off the highs seen in late September, and understandably the view is that the dollar bull cycle is well and truly over. At the heart of the bearish dollar view is the call that the Fed will shift to a reflationary stance in the second half of 2023, US sh...
Summary The dollar remained firm yesterday, even after the ECB's hawkish stance. A consolidative/corrective phase for the dollar may be seen in the coming days. The euro extended yesterday's reversal today and fell to almost $1.0880 before finding bids that took it to session highs in t...
Summary EUR/USD is trading close to 1.0900 after the Fed and ECB meetings, as markets showed little faith in the (modest) attempts by Powell and (fierce) attempts by Lagarde to stay hawkish. Markets’ doubts on ECB guidance may be a larger short-term driver, and delay another big ...
Summary The focus is squarely on the Federal Reserve today. But the market often has reacted one way to the Fed's statement and another to the press conference. Asia-Pacific equities are mostly trading higher, with more than 1% gains in Hong Kong, Shenzhen, Taiwan, and South Korea. ...
Summary A combination of month-end adjustments and positioning ahead of the outcome of tomorrow's FOMC meeting has taken the shine off equities and has helped lift the dollar. Despite repeated attempts, the euro was unable to establish a foothold above $1.09 and was sold back to around ...
Summary The curve is pricing a rapid decline in rates after they reach their peak in 2023. We do not anticipate the ECB to diverge from previous targets here, though we might get information on how special situations will be dealt with. We don’t see this week’s policy ...
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