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Food inflation is becoming a bigger driver of higher prices. Supply chain problems are returning, adding to goods inflation risk. The Ukraine war has created another supply shock on top of an already high inflation rate. Most of the reopening shock seems to be behind us. For...
Earlier this week, Chinese accounts made it seem that a deal was imminent that would allow mainland-based companies to remain listed on US exchanges. The EU and the US appear to be striking a deal for gas to begin supplanting the dependence on Russia. The US dollar has fallen agai...
Chinese and Hong Kong markets led to the regional decline that spared only Japan and Australia among the larger markets. Regional economy is proving more resilient than expected to the war and related economic disruption. The Fed funds futures pricing implies about a 75% chance of...
The continued sell-off of the yen and anticipation of more share buybacks in China helped lift equities in the Asia Pacific after the strong performance of the US indices. The US and UK struck a deal that will lift the odorous steel and aluminum tariffs imposed by the Trump administra...
The dollar is rising against most currencies today. India is exercising options to buy Russian oil at a discount. Powell reiterated that the central bank is prepared to move further and faster. For further details see: Powell Lights Up The Dollar
China’s prime lending rates were unchanged. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index, which rallied more than 4% last week, traded heavily today though China and Taiwan's markets managed to post small gains. Germany is putting together a supplemental budget on top of the current projections...
European stocks actually performed better than the NASDAQ last week so maybe it was positive developments in the Ukraine war that spurred the rally. The dollar index fell nearly 1% last week but is still in an uptrend across shorter time frames. What the market does on a week to w...
Economists and policy makers generally recognize that growth will be weaker than was anticipated at the end of last year. Even with some common bonds, the European bond market remains fragmented, yields are low. Russia's invasion of Ukraine allows the US to take the moral high gro...
The markets continue to digest the implications of yesterday's Fed move and Beijing's signals of more economic supportive efforts as the Bank of England's move awaited. The euro reached a five-day high in early European turnover today, slightly above $1.1065. The dollar typically ...
While EUR/USD near 1.10 looks historically cheap, our Behavioural Equilibrium Exchange Rate model actually suggests that EUR/USD is at least 9% overvalued in real terms. This is primarily due to a significant deterioration in the eurozone’s terms of trade induced by high energy...
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