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The EU surely has more to lose from backfiring Russian sanctions than anyone else, given its rather large trade relationship with the Russian Federation and its dependence on Russian natural gas and oil. One puzzling development has been the amazing recovery of the Russian ruble, whic...
Russia's brutality as it re-positioned forces in Ukraine and China's move to ease the clash with US auditors dominate the news. Hong Kong tech stocks rallied on the news while mainland markets are close today and tomorrow for a national holiday. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index has tra...
With an emphasis on the bigger picture, we focused on the primary drivers of the markets over the past month and going forward. The dollar is on an increasingly fragile ground here with the prospect of two commodity-backed currencies, the ruble and the yuan, challenging its reserve st...
Sentiment among small companies worsened. The eurozone's initial estimate of March CPI jumped to 7.5% from 5.8% in February. The market expects another strong rise in nonfarm payrolls even if matching last month's 678k increase. For further details see: EMU CPI Surges, M...
With not much geopolitical risk premium left, the FX market could start catching up with the recent shifts in rate differentials and economic fundamentals. This implies a stronger dollar, and the overvalued EUR/USD could soon slip back below 1.10. EUR/USD looks expensive in the sh...
The poor Chinese March PMI and talk that the US could tap its strategic oil reserves by as much as one million barrels a day for six months have rippled through the capital markets. The dollar found support ahead of JPY121.10, which is the (38.2%) retracement of the rally since March ...
Although BOJ Governor Kuroda, who met with Prime Minister Kishida earlier today, does not seem concerned about the yen's weakness, Finance Minister Suzuki seemed more cautious. The Australian dollar bounced off four-day lows slightly below $0.7460 yesterday and settled above $0.7500. ...
A separate report by a Japanese research group found that a 10-yen appreciation of the dollar boosted operating profits by JPY1.5 trillion (~$12 bln). The Ukraine government appears willing to accept that it will not join NATO, but refuses to recognize any loss of territory, and of co...
Led by financials, utilities, and communication, the Stoxx 600 has risen by about 0.75% in the European morning. China is taking a new initiative though that has not been widely reported. It appears that China and the Solomon Islands are close to a security pact. A pre-election du...
Food inflation is becoming a bigger driver of higher prices. Supply chain problems are returning, adding to goods inflation risk. The Ukraine war has created another supply shock on top of an already high inflation rate. Most of the reopening shock seems to be behind us. For...
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