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Currency markets are sending some important warning signals about global growth and inflation coming from movements in the Chinese yuan, the euro and the Japanese yen. After a long period of stability, recent depreciation in the Chinese yuan is signaling that China’s economy ma...
ECB tightening and weakening macroeconomic conditions globally are a toxic cocktail for Italian bonds. Debt sustainability is not yet a concern, but we expect wider spreads until the ECB’s fragmentation facility is officially announced. The EUR/CHF reaction to a widening BT...
The US 10-year breakeven rate (the difference between the yield of the inflation-protected security and the conventional note yield) rose from 2.60% at the end of last year to a high a little bit above 3.05% on April 22. April retail sales are expected to rise by a solid 1% by the med...
Equities are recovering from dramatic losses. The euro, sterling, and yen are struggling. The freely accessible emerging market currencies are mixed. For further details see: Sentiment Remains Fragile, And The Euro And Sterling Can Barely Sustain Even Modest Upticks
The continued drop in US Treasury yields has seen the dollar slump against the Japanese yen. The two-week consolidation pattern that had confined the euro has been resolved to the downside. While the US April CPI was a bit firmer than expected, it is not a game changer. For ...
It appears that investors have become more concerned about growth prospects and less about inflation in recent days. Ahead of the US CPI report, the euro is trading in about a quarter cent range on either side of $1.0550. The US dollar has risen against the Canadian dollar for the...
The uncertainty over the economic outlook is now arguably the highest it has been over the past several years. The war in Ukraine is having a significant impact on trade flows - particularly in agricultural commodities. Alongside China lockdowns, bottlenecks look set to worsen in the ...
Risk appetites are improving on the margin. Asia Pacific stocks still fell after the sharp losses on Wall Street on Monday. Still, China, Taiwan and Indian equities traded higher. The euro has been bouncing along its trough around $1.0480 for the better part of two weeks. The doll...
The Asia-Pacific bourses were a sea of red, with many of the large markets off 2-3%. Japan was the exception and managed to eke out a small gain. Europe's Stoxx 600 gapped lower after yesterday's outside down session. US futures are trading around 0.3-0.5% lower. The dollar is...
There are not many months in which the dollar broadly appreciates 5% – but April was one of them. Given that the Fed tightening story has been a key driver of dollar strength since June 2021, it seems too early to call time on the dollar rally. April’s outsize move i...
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