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Recession fears and central-bank tightening are driving market volatility. Markets have faced a laundry list of concerns this year, including new COVID-19 lockdowns and an economic slowdown in China, the Russia-Ukraine war, surging inflation, and central-bank tightening. We think ...
The global capital markets are calm today. Most of the large bourses in the Asia Pacific extended yesterday’s gain. The US is determined to send unequivocal signals to China that it is not distracted by Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The dollar pushed higher against the yen,...
China's zero-Covid policy and the subsequent lockdowns have been the second significant shock this year after Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The International Energy Agency warned Europe should prepare immediately for a complete loss of Russian gas. In early June, Canada's two-year...
A series of disappointing US economic data and the Fed's commitment to rein in inflation have heightened concerns that economic weakness will limit the Fed's ability to hike rates. For the first time, the implied yield of the December 2023 Fed funds futures contract is below the Decem...
Recessions have gone from being a potential consequence of high inflation and rapid monetary tightening to an increasingly likely scenario. A wrath of economic indicators are expected to confirm the trend of weakening business activity. The gas stand-off with Russia isn’t e...
Equities are higher and bonds lower as the week's activity winds down. The risk of a new crisis in Europe is under-appreciated. The shape of the Fed funds and Eurodollar futures curve suggests investors see the Fed breaking something sooner. For further details see: Risk...
The dollar is trading with a firmer bias except against the yen, where the threat of verbal intervention and falling US rates help the yen recover. The preliminary PMI in the eurozone was weaker-than-expected. The second weakening asset prices to curb the wealth effect and reduce ...
Yesterday’s strong US equity gains failed to carry over into today’s session. After a quiet local session yesterday, the dollar went bid against the yen in the European morning and accelerated to JPY136.70 into the North American close. The surge in US equities helpe...
Reports suggest China's Covid outbreak is spreading to the south coast while infections are getting under control, it appears, in Beijing and Shanghai. After prolonged negotiations and some warning activity, German steel workers accepted a 6.5% pay increase in an 18-month contract, pl...
This “inflation” is just the cover for the harmful redistribution of last year’s global supply shock (not money printing dollars). The global economy is clearly hitting the wall of the supply shock and reacting just as markets and curves have been pricing for well...
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