House Prices Nationally Start 2026 Soft, According to First American Data & Analytics Monthly Home Price Index Report
MWN-AI** Summary
According to the January 2026 Home Price Index (HPI) report by First American Data & Analytics, the national housing market has started the year on a soft note. The HPI showed a 0.2% month-over-month decline from December 2025 to January 2026, aligning with a modest year-over-year appreciation of just 0.4%. This marks the sixth consecutive month where annual house price growth has remained below 1%, signaling a notable shift away from the previous rapid price acceleration.
Chief Economist Mark Fleming characterized the housing market’s current condition as subdued, noting that the previous era of significant price increases is over. With prices showing minimal monthly fluctuations, the stability benefits potential buyers by enhancing affordability, especially as household incomes continue to rise.
The report highlights that twenty-three of the top thirty markets experienced annual price declines, showing a growing prevalence of softening prices. While Midwestern and Northeastern regions like St. Louis and Warren, Mich., showcased the strongest price growth, certain Western markets, including Oakland, Denver, and Seattle, suffered the largest year-over-year declines. The HPI segments home price changes into three tiers—starter, mid, and luxury—illustrating diverse market dynamics.
Affordability is gradually improving, driven by slower price growth, which may benefit buyers in the long run. As the housing market continues to grapple with these trends, local supply and demand dynamics are expected to remain influential in shaping price behaviors across different regions. The next HPI report is anticipated to release in March 2026, providing further insights into ongoing housing market trends.
MWN-AI** Analysis
As we begin 2026, the latest report from First American Data & Analytics indicates a soft start for house prices nationally, which is essential for both potential buyers and investors to consider. Significant trends have emerged from the January 2026 Home Price Index (HPI), highlighting ongoing challenges in the housing market. Notably, national home appreciation is below 1 percent for the sixth consecutive month, with monthly declines logged at -0.2 percent.
This environment of subdued price growth signals a departure from the rapid appreciation observed in previous years, but it could present opportunities for buyers. With prices essentially flat, combined with rising household incomes, affordability may gradually improve. For first-time homebuyers in particular, these conditions may signal a more balanced entry point into the housing market, especially in regions experiencing slower appreciation or even declines.
Market performance is notably uneven. While cities like St. Louis, Cambridge, and Warren have witnessed the strongest growth in the starter tier, markets such as Oakland, Denver, and Seattle have recorded significant declines — a trend that merits attention from potential investors selecting regions for capital deployment. This suggests that localized factors are paramount; understanding the dynamics of individual markets will be crucial moving forward.
For investors, caution is advisable given the broader national trends. Focusing on markets showing resilience or growth potential, particularly in the Midwest and Northeast, may yield better returns. Conversely, markets with declining prices may require a careful analysis of future recovery potential before investing.
In conclusion, while the national market outlook appears subdued, savvy analysis of local conditions may offer pathways for both buyers and investors to navigate this shifting landscape effectively. Regular monitoring of the HPI and localized market conditions will be critical throughout 2026.
**MWN-AI Summary and Analysis is based on asking OpenAI to summarize and analyze this news release.
—Twenty-three of the top 30 markets recorded annual declines, while national appreciation held below 1 percent, says Chief Economist Mark Fleming—
First American Data & Analytics , a leading national provider of property-centric information, risk management and valuation solutions and a division of First American Financial Corporation (NYSE: FAF), today released its January 2026 Home Price Index (HPI) report. The report tracks home price changes less than four weeks behind real time at the national, state and metropolitan (Core-Based Statistical Area) levels and includes metropolitan price tiers that segment sale transactions into starter, mid and luxury tiers. The full report can be found here .
January 1 National House Price Index
First American Data & Analytics’ National Non-Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) HPI | |
Metric | Change in HPI |
December 2025-January 2026 (month over month) | -0.2 percent |
January 2025-January 2026 (year over year) | +0.4 percent |
Highlights
- Annual house price appreciation remained below 1 percent for the sixth consecutive month in January.
- House price growth reported in last month’s HPI for November 2025 to December 2025 was revised down by -0.07 percentage point, from -0.17 percent to -0.24 percent.
“January’s data suggests that house price appreciation started 2026 much the way it ended last year—subdued,” said Mark Fleming, chief economist at First American. “Prices declined modestly on a monthly basis and annual appreciation remained under 1 percent for the sixth consecutive month. The era of rapid price acceleration is long past, replaced by a market with price changes essentially flat on an annual basis. For buyers, that stability is meaningful. Soft price growth, combined with faster rising household incomes, continues to gradually improve affordability.”
January 2026 Local Market Price Tier Highlights
The First American Data & Analytics HPI segments home price changes at the metropolitan level into three price tiers based on local market sales data: starter tier, which represents home sales prices at the bottom third of the market price distribution; mid-tier, which represents home sales prices in the middle third of the market price distribution; and the luxury tier, which represents home sales prices in the top third of the market price distribution.
“Price trends remain uneven across markets, but falling prices are becoming more common,” said Fleming. “Twenty-three of the top 30 markets posted annual price declines, compared with 20 markets that were flat or declining the month before. Midwestern and Northeastern markets continue to lead appreciation, with Warren, Mich., Cambridge, Mass., and St. Louis posting the strongest gains, while several Western markets—including Oakland, Denver, and Seattle—rank among those with the largest annual decreases. In a nationally stable market, local supply and demand dynamics continue to dictate performance.”
January 2026 First American Data & Analytics Price Tier HPI Highlights
Core-Based Statistical Areas (CBSAs) Ranked by Greatest Year-Over-Year Increases in Stater Tier HPI | |||
CBSA | Change in Starter Tier HPI | Change in Mid-Tier HPI | Change in Luxury Tier HPI |
St. Louis | +6.9 percent | +1.7 percent | +1.1 percent |
Cambridge, Mass. | +5.9 percent | +3.8 percent | +2.1 percent |
Warren, Mich. | +5.8 percent | +3.1 percent | +2.9 percent |
Pittsburgh | +3.2 percent | +2.3 percent | +2.5 percent |
Anaheim, Calif. | +2.7 percent | -0.5 percent | +0.4 percent |
Additional January 2026 First American Data & Analytics HPI Highlights
Core-Based Statistical Areas (CBSAs) with Greatest Year-Over-Year Increases in HPI | |
CBSA | Change in HPI |
Warren, Mich. | +4.4 percent |
Cambridge, Mass. | +3.7 percent |
St. Louis | +3.1 percent |
New York | +1.9 percent |
Pittsburgh | +1.5 percent |
Core-Based Statistical Areas (CBSAs) with a Year-Over-Year Decrease in HPI | |
Oakland, Calif. | -4.6 percent |
Denver | -4.5 percent |
Seattle | -4.0 percent |
Las Vegas | -3.5 percent |
Los Angeles | -2.8 percent |
HPI data for all 50 states and the largest 30 CBSAs by population is available here .
Visit the First American Economic Center for more research on housing market dynamics.
Next Release
The next release of the First American Data & Analytics House Price Index will take place the week of March 16, 2026.
January 2026 First American Data & Analytics House Price Index: Frequently Asked Questions
Q: What is the First American Data & Analytics Home Price Index (HPI)?
A: The First American Data & Analytics Home Price Index (HPI) measures changes in single-family home prices across the United States using a repeat-sales methodology. It tracks price movements at the national, state, and metropolitan (Core-Based Statistical Area) levels and includes starter, mid-tier, and luxury price segments.
Q: What did the January 2026 HPI report find at the national level?
A: National house prices declined 0.2 percent month over month (December 2025 to January 2026) and increased 0.4 percent year over year (January 2025 to January 2026), with annual appreciation remaining below 1 percent for the sixth consecutive month.
Q: What is driving subdued to flat house price growth nationally?
A: According to First American Chief Economist Mark Fleming, the era of rapid price acceleration has long past, and the market has shifted to a period of relative price stability. Slower price growth, combined with rising household incomes, is gradually improving affordability for buyers.
Q: Which markets experienced the strongest price growth in January 2026?
A: Among major markets, Warren, Mich., Cambridge, Mass., and St. Louis posted the strongest annual home price appreciation. Starter-tier growth was particularly strong in St. Louis, Cambridge, and Warren.
Q: Which markets saw the largest price declines?
A: Oakland, Calif., Denver, Seattle, Las Vegas, and Los Angeles recorded the largest year-over-year house price declines among major metropolitan areas.
Q: How does stable price growth improve housing affordability?
A: When home prices grow more slowly than incomes, affordability improves over time. January’s data indicates that subdued price growth is contributing to gradual affordability gains.
Q: How current is the First American HPI data?
A: The HPI tracks home price changes less than four weeks behind real time, making it one of the timeliest measures of U.S. home price trends available.
Q: Who produces the First American HPI?
A: The HPI is produced by First American Data & Analytics, a division of First American Financial Corporation (NYSE: FAF), using more than 46 million paired real estate transactions and the industry’s largest property and ownership dataset.
Q: When will the next HPI report be released?
A: The next First American Data & Analytics Home Price Index report is scheduled for release during the week of March 16, 2026.
First American Data & Analytics HPI Methodology
The First American Data & Analytics HPI report measures single-family home prices, including distressed sales, with indices updated monthly beginning in 1980 through the month of the current report. HPI data is provided at the national, state and CBSA levels and includes preliminary index estimates for the month prior to the report (i.e. the preliminary result of July transactions is reported in August). The most recent index results are subject to revision as data from more transactions become available.
The HPI uses a repeat-sales methodology, which measures price changes for the same property over time using more than 46 million paired transactions to generate the indices. In non-disclosure states, the HPI utilizes a combination of public sales records, MLS sold and active listings, and appraisal data to estimate house prices. This comprehensive approach is particularly effective in areas where there is limited availability of accurate sale prices, such as non-disclosure states. Property type, price and location data are used to create more refined market segment indices. Real Estate-Owned transactions are not included.
Disclaimer
Opinions, estimates, forecasts and other views contained in this page are those of First American’s Chief Economist, do not necessarily represent the views of First American or its management, should not be construed as indicating First American’s business prospects or expected results, and are subject to change without notice. Although the First American Economics team attempts to provide reliable, useful information, it does not guarantee that the information is accurate, current or suitable for any particular purpose. © 2026 by First American. Information from this page may be used with proper attribution.
About First American Data & Analytics
First American Data & Analytics , a division of First American Financial Corporation, is a national provider of property-centric information, risk management and valuation solutions. First American maintains and curates the industry’s largest property and ownership dataset that includes more than 8.6 billion document images. Its major platforms and products include: DataTree ® , FraudGuard ® , RegsData ® , First American TaxSource™ and ACI ® . Find out more about how First American Data & Analytics powers the real estate, mortgage and title settlement services industries with advanced decisioning solutions at www.FirstAmDNA.com .
About First American
First American Financial Corporation (NYSE: FAF) is a premier provider of title, settlement and risk solutions for real estate transactions. With its combination of financial strength and stability built over more than 135 years, innovative proprietary technologies, and unmatched data assets, the company is leading the digital transformation of its industry. First American also provides data products to the title industry and other third parties; valuation products and services; mortgage subservicing; home warranty products; banking, trust and wealth management services; and other related products and services. With total revenue of $7.5 billion in 2025, the company offers its products and services directly and through its agents throughout the United States and abroad. In 2025, First American was named one of the 100 Best Companies to Work For by Great Place to Work ® and Fortune Magazine for the tenth consecutive year. More information about the company can be found at www.firstam.com .
1 The most recent index results are subject to revision as data from more transactions become available.
View source version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260219452606/en/
Media Contact:
Marcus Ginnaty
Corporate Communications
First American Financial Corporation
(714) 250-3298
Investor Contact:
Craig Barberio
Investor Relations
First American Financial Corporation
(714) 250-5214
FAQ**
How might the recent findings from the First American Data & Analytics HPI indicate potential investment opportunities for First American Corporation FAF, especially in the markets showing robust growth like Warren, Mich. and Cambridge, Mass.?
Given the six consecutive months of sub-1 percent annual appreciation reported by the First American Data & Analytics, what strategies should First American Corporation FAF consider to navigate this subdued housing market environment?
With 23 out of the top markets showing annual price declines in the HPI report, how could First American Corporation FAF leverage its data analytics to identify regions with potential for recovery and investment?
How does the combination of stable price growth and rising household incomes, as highlighted in the First American Data & Analytics report, create an investment landscape for First American Corporation FAF amid the current market fluctuations?
**MWN-AI FAQ is based on asking OpenAI questions about First American Corporation (NYSE: FAF).
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