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Russian debt, both hard currency and local currency, is largely shut down for trading. Prices for Russian government securities are pricing in a default scenario. The markets have dramatically repriced central bank expectations. For further details see: Russia Sanctions ...
Russia-Ukraine crisis: What's Putin's next move? A full regime change in Ukraine may be tougher than Putin thinks. Bond market surprise: Why didn't long bonds react to Russian attack? For further details see: Russia-Ukraine Crisis: What's Putin's Next Move?
Bond market sentiment is reaching extreme levels. Treasury volatility, as measured by the MOVE Index, spiked to very high readings. We see intermediate-term fixed-income rates near fair value for now. For further details see: Rise In Bond Yields Looks Like An Exhausted M...
Investors who think they have no macro exposure quite often are just unaware of what macro risks they are running. One complaint I have seen multiple times that people were annoyed that macro analysts were opining on the topic, despite a lack of qualifications in international relatio...
The market expects at least four rate hikes beginning in March setting the stage for a tough year for fixed income. All else equal, higher yielding asset classes may hold up better as rates rise because a higher level of income earned will help to offset price losses as rates rise. ...
Investors that hold bonds to maturity earn the yield at which they purchased the security, and at maturity, they get paid face value. The US government issues its own currency and can always pay for anything with the Fed’s newly created money. Fixed income investors have go...
Markets had expected the BoE's bank rate hike, but they were caught a bit off guard by a surprising pivot by the ECB, widely seen as the most dovish of major central banks in wanting to hold off talk of any rate hikes until after 2022. ECB president Christine Lagarde noted that inflat...
We have seen crypto disruption expand across the financial system and expect this to continue. Inflation pressures may linger through 2022 and pose a risk of spiraling into a more persistent economic factor. Historically in these market environments, real assets—including n...
At the end of 2019, had we been told that a two-year pandemic was about to begin, we would have found it impossible to predict the set of returns that followed in subsequent years. Historically, “tightening,” or “over-tightening,” policy was about corrallin...
I try to focus on the main drivers of the current market action, and offer some brief commentary along the way. We are still short 3.9 million employees, compared to the pre-Covid number. And we only added 210 thousand persons in November. As stock investors seek safety in the Tre...
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2024-06-11 12:42:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-05-10 21:40:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-05-01 03:04:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...