A Rate Hike And Then What? Our ECB Preview

2026-06-03 10:20:00 ET

By Carsten Brzeski , Global Head of Macro

Anything but a rate hike at the June 11 ECB meeting would be a big surprise. The ECB is not facing a textbook case of de-anchoring inflation expectations (yet) but rather the expected scenario of increasing actual headline inflation, with higher energy prices showing knock-on effects on other parts of the economy. At the same time, however, actual headline inflation developments are still broadly in line with the ECB’s March projections, while core inflation has turned out somewhat higher....

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